While the average American spends more than four years saving to purchase a home, according to Intuit, there are many people in other parts of the world—especially conflict zones—for whom saving any amount of money is a luxury. In places like Israel and Ukraine, where war has brought the real estate industry in both countries to a virtual standstill, people’s homebuying and selling ambitions have been sidelined by a more urgent need: survival.
The real estate community in Israel is in a holding pattern, waiting to see how the conflict with Hamas will impact the country over the long term, says Assaf Epstein, broker-owner of Nadlan 2000, a luxury real estate firm in Jerusalem. Epstein says that buying a home is often an emotional decision, and with their lives upended by war, his clients don’t have the mental bandwidth to see a home transaction through at this time. People are much more cautious about nonessential purchases, adds Epstein, who also is the chair of the Jerusalem Chamber of Real Estate Brokers.
In the immediate aftermath of the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas, Epstein says, he was busy taking calls from panicked clients who were worried about their pending transactions. Then, the calls stopped as it became clear an extended, full-scale conflict was underway. Buyers and sellers just froze. “Once the calls stopped coming in and buyer interest went away, some agents were faced with the reality of not being able to provide for their families,” Epstein explains, adding that some agents left the business while others joined the military.
But Epstein is confident the real estate industry will be revived. Homeownership has strong cultural significance in Israel, where many are descendants of the Jewish diaspora. Owning a home creates a sense of permanence that many hadn’t known prior to living in Israel. And even though the pool of buyers has dramatically reduced since the war began, there are still those from the diaspora looking to make “aliyah,” the immigration of Jews to Israel.
“We are living in a time of rising antisemitism,” Epstein says. “And, as crazy as it sounds, I am getting calls from American Jews considering moving to Israel—maybe because they have a child who is studying here, and they want a second home. But I am also hearing from some who are afraid that they will have to leave the United States due to the increase in antisemitism.”
For now, Epstein is doing his best to counsel clients, but it’s difficult to give them conclusive guidance because he can’t predict how the war will play out. “It is going to take time,” Epstein says. “I am hopeful by mid-2024, the market will improve. But people need to feel safe again in order for that to happen.”
He adds: “The market goes down a lot faster than it comes back up.”
“There has been terrible destruction to property, as well as civilian casualties,” says Olga Arkhypova, an agent with Partner Real Estate in Odesa, Ukraine.
The number of displaced citizens there continues to increase as the war with Russia rages on, and most people are concerned about saving cash for everyday needs, let alone purchasing a home. Arkhypova is counseling clients on how to take advantage of housing programs enacted by the government to aid home buyers and homeowners whose properties have been destroyed. She’s also busy working with clients who fled Odesa, listing the homes they left behind and shipping their personal belongings to them.
Some parts of the city are seeing a return to normalcy: Rental rates are back to prewar levels in Odesa’s most desirable neighborhoods. But demand in any part of the city often depends on how much shelling the area has received. Although Arkhypova has remained safe, she says she hears sirens throughout the day.
“Until 2022, Odesa was one of the top three real estate markets in Ukraine and was tied with Kyiv for most housing under construction,” Arkhypova says. But other cities further away from the battlefront, such as Lviv, Rivne, Ternopil and Ivano-Frankivsk, are seeing an increase in homebuyer demand, she adds. Accordingly, home prices in those areas are rising. Arkhypova gets intel from fellow real estate pros around Ukraine, and the trends she’s hearing about in other cities are giving her hope for Odesa.
“There will be peace and prosperity again, which means that Ukrainian agents will have plenty of work, and the country’s real estate market will flourish—as will the entire economy of the country,” she says.
Arkhypova also keeps in touch with real estate pros abroad who left Ukraine, like Olesya Drozdova, who is now an agent with Altamar Real Estate in Dana Point, Calif. Though Drozdova moved with her husband from Kyiv to America in 1998, she feels a strong connection to her homeland.
Drozdova remembers life as a child in Kyiv under the rule of the Soviet Union. People didn’t own their homes privately, and authorities could take their properties away from them for any reason. Drozdova says she’s thankful to be in the U.S. but feels pride in her Ukrainian heritage. “Seeing what is happening back home is very difficult because I want to do something to help, but I have responsibilities here,” she says. “I can’t just quit my job and go back to Ukraine. But I can’t do nothing, either.”
Drozdova stays in touch regularly with her friends and fellow real estate agents in Ukraine. She’s hearing about areas of the country that are taking in thousands of refugees, complicating local housing dynamics there. While some parts of Ukraine have blocks of empty buildings, others don’t have enough housing for the influx of new residents. Drozdova is busy making sure her mother’s home in Kyiv is being cared for. By chance, Drozdova’s mother came to visit her at the end of 2021; she was still in California on Feb. 24, 2022, when Russia’s invasion began.
“She was supposed to go back in March of 2022, but, of course, that didn’t happen,” Drozdova says. Her mother is still living with her now. “She is 80 years old. I won’t let her go back.” They’ve been able to rely on a family friend to care for her mother’s home while she is away, but there is a concern about looters and Russian soldiers quartering in vacant residences. For now, she’s just happy her mother is safe.
