Today’s mortgage and refinance rates 

Average mortgage rates fell yesterday. Finally! It felt good, even though it’s adrift in a sea of rises.

And the falls might continue today. Market movements first thing suggest mortgage rates might fall modestly today. But it’s unlikely this is the start of sustained drops in these rates. I’m expecting higher ones soon.

Find and lock a low rate (Mar 23rd, 2021)

Current mortgage and refinance rates 

Find and lock a low rate (Mar 23rd, 2021)

COVID-19 mortgage updates: Mortgage lenders are changing rates and rules due to COVID-19. To see the latest on how coronavirus could impact your home loan, click here.

Should you lock a mortgage rate today?

Of course, you can take a chance and wait while mortgage rates are steady or falling. But, besides that, nothing’s changed. I see the current lull in rises as a breather and expect these rates to resume their upward trend soon.

Naturally, that’s not certain. And, below, I lay out some of the things that just might cause rates to fall back. But those currently seem much less likely than several more months of living with rises.

So my personal rate lock recommendations remain:

• LOCK if closing in 7 days
• LOCK if closing in 15 days
• LOCK if closing in 30 days
• LOCK if closing in 45 days
• LOCK if closing in 60 days

But I don’t claim perfect foresight. And your personal analysis could turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So you might choose to be guided by your instincts and your personal tolerance for risk.

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates 

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared with roughly the same time yesterday, were:

• The yield on 10-year Treasurys fell to 1.65% from 1.70% (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates normally tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields, though less so recently
• Major stock indexes were lower on opening. (Good for mortgage rates.) When investors are buying shares they’re often selling bonds, which pushes prices of those down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite happens when indexes are lower
• Oil prices rose to $59.21 from $59.15 a barrel. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a large role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity.) 
• Gold prices inched lower to $1,732 from $1,733 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) In general, it’s better for rates when gold rises, and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to push rates lower
• CNN Business Fear & Greed index — Held steady at 53 out of 100. (Neutral for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.

So use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, so far mortgage rates today look likely to fall but that’s far from assured. Just be aware that intraday swings (when rates change direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

Find and lock a low rate (Mar 23rd, 2021)

Important notes on today’s mortgage rates

Here are some things you need to know:

1. Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care‘
2. Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
3. Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the wider trend over time
4. When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
5. Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases. But some types of refinances are higher following a regulatory change

So there’s a lot going on here. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what’s going to happen to mortgage rates in coming hours, days, weeks, or months.

Are mortgage and refinance rates rising or falling?

Today and soon

Yesterday, we reviewed the two strong forces that are pushing mortgage rates higher. First, a growing confidence that the post-pandemic economic recovery will arrive soon and be significant. And secondly, a fear that the recovery will bring more inflation. Both these typically push up rates.

But what of the forces that might pull them down again? These seem much less likely to arise than a continuation of the existing trend. But they’re possibilities so let’s explore them:

1. A new wave of infections arising from Spring Break. This is likely to be fairly short term and may not bother markets much
2. The emergence of a virulent and vaccine-resistant variant of SARS- CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. Scientists seem confident they could engineer new vaccines to counter one of these. But it could take many months or a year or so to create, manufacture, distribute and administer these
3. Some economists believe stock markets are in bubble territory. Were that bubble to burst, that would be a serious game-changer.
4. Any other unforeseen eventuality that causes the economy severe damage

All of those are possible. But none seems likely. If choosing whether to float or lock your rate were a gambling game, you probably wouldn’t back those odds.

For more background on my wider thinking, read our latest weekend edition, which is published every Saturday soon after 10 a.m. (ET).

Recently

Over much of 2020, the overall trend for mortgage rates was clearly downward. And a new, weekly all-time low was set on 16 occasions last year, according to Freddie Mac.

The most recent weekly record low occurred on Jan. 7, when it stood at 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. But rates then rose. And Freddie’s Mar. 18 report puts that weekly average at 3.09% (with 0.7 fees and points), up from the previous week’s 3.05%.

Expert mortgage rate forecasts

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.

And here are their current rates forecasts for each quarter of 2021 (Q1/21, Q2/21, Q3/21, and Q4/21).

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s were updated on March 17 and the MBA’s on March 22. But Freddie now publishes forecasts quarterly. Its figures are from mid-January and are looking stale:

Forecaster	Q1/21	Q2/21	Q3/21	Q4/21
Fannie Mae	2.9%	3.1%	3.1%	3.2%
Freddie Mac	2.9%	2.9%	3.0%	3.0%
MBA	2.9%	3.2%	3.4%	3.6%

However, given so many unknowables, the current crop of forecasts may be even more speculative than usual. And there’s certainly a widening spread as the year progresses.

Find your lowest rate today

Some lenders have been spooked by the pandemic. And they’re restricting their offerings to just the most vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinances.

But others remain brave. And you can still probably find the cash-out refinance, investment mortgage or jumbo loan you want. You just have to shop around more widely.

But, of course, you should be comparison shopping widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. As federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:

Shopping around for your mortgage has the potential to lead to real savings. It may not sound like much, but saving even a quarter of a point in interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.

Verify your new rate (Mar 23rd, 2021)

Mortgage rate methodology