The housing market is enjoying a spring bounce, with the number of housing transactions 1% higher than in February – the third consecutive month this figure has risen according to HMRC data.
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis this recovery is more pronounced, with a 20% rise on the previous month.
However, this data also shows the continuing difficulties facing the housing market. The seasonally-adjusted estimate of 85,200 transactions in March 2024 remains 6% lower than the same month the previous year — and 9% lower on a non-seasonally adjusted basis.
SPF Private Clients chief executive Mark Harris says: “Transaction numbers have picked up again month-on-month, although they are down compared with last year.
“Swap rates, which underpin the pricing of fixed-rate mortgages, have been rising for a while but it is only in the past week or so that lenders have been raising their rates accordingly.
“This is unwelcome news in particular for those borrowers who have held off committing to a product in the hope that rates would have come down further by now, with many being caught out.”
More2life Managing Director Ben Waugh points out: “Property transactions have been steadily climbing throughout the first quarter of the year but remain below the levels seen during the same period in 2023.
“Inflation falling to its lowest rate in two years and the expected drop in base rate later this year should help to restore consumer confidence after the extended period of economic volatility the market has endured.
“Alongside these more favourable economic factors, the rise in property transactions, albeit small, can also be attributed to the growing number of homeowners who are being forced into downsizing their property in order to navigate higher mortgage payments.”
Jeremy Leaf, north London estate agent and a former Rics residential chairman, adds: “Transactions are key to assessing the health of the property market at any particular time as they not only reflect mortgaged and cash activity but leave speculation about prices to the lenders and portals.
“These figures, although showing what was happening a few months ago at least, recognise the underlying strengths in buyer and seller confidence, despite the inevitable ups and downs as mortgage rates vary.
“Overall, most recognise that even small increases in payments won’t dent the otherwise firmly held view that the direction of travel for rates is downwards.”
