GDP ticks up 2% as recovery slows | Mortgage Strategy

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GDP ticked up by 2.1 per cent in August, but has missed expectations in a sign the economic recovery is slowing.

The 2.1 per cent uplift is significantly below the 6.6 per cent recorded in July and the 8.7 per cent seen in June.

Despite four consecutive months of growth, UK output is still some 9.2 per cent below pre-pandemic levels, while a new wave of local lockdown measures and protracted Brexit negotiations could continue to drag on economic expansion.

Some of the factors that boosted figures produced by the Office for National Statistics could be temporary if a new lockdown was introduced; restaurants and accommodation benefited from schemes such as Eat Out to Help Out and people deciding to visit regions of the UK as overseas territories for holidays were shut off.

An increase in housebuilding activity was not enough to offset sluggish performance in the wider construction industry.

Fidelity International investment director Tom Stevenson says: “While there are positive indications from the Bank of England of growth returning to pre pandemic levels before Christmas, this is far from a done deal. The furlough scheme comes to an end this month and there is a real danger that fear of unemployment triggers a negative feedback loop of precautionary saving and dampens consumer confidence.

“Covid-19 cases are rising quickly in some parts of the country, with further localised lockdowns expected to be announced on Monday. This will undoubtedly hit output as the country braces itself for a long, difficult winter.”

The Times reports this morning that a local furlough scheme will be announced imminently, so that for those people in areas of the country where businesses are forced to close, the government will step in to support wages.


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