Budget nervousness fuels "inertia" in the property market: Knight Frank

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Nervousness about the upcoming Budget is fuelling “inertia” in the property market, according to Knight Frank global head of research Liam Bailey.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves will unveil her Budget on 26 November, with several property reforms rumoured.

These include scrapping stamp duty for buyers and replacing it with a tax on sellers of homes worth more than £500,000, ending the Capital Gains Tax exemption on main residences above certain thresholds and extending National Insurance to cover rental income.

Referencing the October RICS Residential Market Survey, Bailey said that “more homebuyers are inclined to sit tight and wait for clarity” as the Budget draws nearer.

He added that the RICS new buyer enquiries metric has fallen to -24%, the weakest reading since April, which means fewer stamp duty receipts for the Treasury.

This “only underscores the bizarre decision to float so many tax options in public over the summer”, Bailey went on.

Estate agents quoted in the latest RICS report said Budget fears were fuelling “inertia” and “nervousness”, while the market feels “suspended in animation”.

Housebuilder Persimmon also noted “some softening in the market since the summer, with consumer confidence affected by ongoing uncertainties including the upcoming Government budget,” in a trading update published this week.

More than 100,000 built-to-rent homes have full planning granted and are yet to begin on site, according to the latest Knight Frank data.

Bailey said that when many of these will be built remains uncertain, with the number of units under construction 8% lower than a year ago.

“Regulatory hurdles and high costs continue to stall construction, particularly for high-rise apartments,” he added.

“Many developers are unable to proceed due to unviable site economics or delays in the Gateway process. Official figures show it now takes 36 weeks on average to secure Gateway 2 approval. Uncertainty around Gateway 3 timelines further complicates project viability.”


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