Election boosts housing market confidence: RICS - Mortgage Strategy

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Housing market confidence has improved significantly since the General Election result in December, according to the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors’ latest index.

A number of key measures turned positive for the first time in months, the sentiment survey of professional valuers found.

In December, 17 per cent more surveyors saw a rise rather than fall in enquiries from new buyers, up from -5 per cent in November,

The majority of regions across the UK saw an increase in interest from buyers, with particularly strong results in Wales and the North East.

London and the South East saw a significant turnaround from negative sentiment in November.

The number of agreed sales increased at a national level, with more surveyors reporting an increase in sales than a decrease, resulting in a positive balance (of 9 per cent) for the first time since May. 

Sales expectations for the next three months were positive for the third month in a row, with a net balance of 31 per cent anticipating transactions will rise. 

Over the next 12 months a positive net balance of 66 per cent of surveyors predicted an increase in sales, up from 35 per cent in November.

A net balance of 2 per cent of surveyors reported a fall in house prices over the past three months, compared to a net balance of 11 per cent reporting falls in the three months to November.

For the year ahead, however, a net balance of 66 per cent of respondents expect house prices to rise.

In the lettings market tenant demand increased modestly but landlord instructions remained in decline as they have been since 2016.

Respondents forecast rents are likely to rise as a result of rising demand and falling supply.

RICS chief economist Simon Rubinsohn says: “The signals from the latest survey provides further evidence that the housing market is seeing some benefit from the greater clarity provided by the decisive election outcome.

“Whether the improvement in sentiment can be sustained remains to be seen given that there is so much work to be done over the course of this year in determining the nature of the eventual Brexit deal. 

“However, the sales expectations indicators clearly point to the prospect of more upbeat trend in transactions emerging with potential purchasers being more comfortable in following through on initial enquiries.”

Rubhinson warns that the lack of stock on the market could hold back a meaningful uplift in activity, but the increase in new instructions in December is cause for optimism. 

He adds: “Given that affordability remains a key issue in many parts of the country, the shift in the mood-music on prices is a concern with even London expectations pointing to a reversal of course both over the coming months and looking further out. 

“This highlights the critical importance of the government addressing the challenge around housing supply particularly with the gradual phasing out of the Help to Buy incentive.”


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