Entering the Autumn months, there’s a back to school feel about the mortgage market; something of a freshness about the sector and certainly a buzz amongst the industry peers I talk to.

For me personally, it’s a particularly exciting time. I’m thrilled to take on the role of managing director of mortgages at Paragon, building on the strong foundations laid by my predecessors Richard Rowntree and John Heron.

I’m certainly glad to be taking on the role in this environment.

After the turbulence of the post-Covid inflation balloon and the mini-Budget fiasco, it feels the market is finally operating on a more even keel. As we approach the two-year anniversary of Kwasi Kwarteng’s infamous budget, the feeling of panic that engulfed that industry has (largely) gone.

We recently saw the first Base Rate cut and mortgage pricing has been edging down. Zoopla data also shows the number of homes listed for sale is at a seven-year high – more signs of a normalised market.

Buy-to-let certainly endured a buffeting in 2023, with total lending nearly halved compared to 2022. When industry figures were recently published by UK Finance, it prompted a spate of ‘buy-to-let is dead’ analysis and articles.

There’s a couple of points to make here.

Comparing last year with the one before was always going to show a significant fall because of the strength of 2022 buy-to-let lending data. It was a gangbuster of a year, the highest on record, driven by a combination of low mortgage rates, robust personal finances on the back of Covid savings, record levels of tenant demand and the aftereffects of the Stamp Duty Holiday.

The industry had always expected a quieter 2023, but the mini-budget ripped off the monetary policy plaster, forcing the Bank of England to raise interest rates more aggressively than it anticipated to curb rampant inflation.

Of course that rapid increase in funding costs was going to disrupt the market and many landlords put investment plans on hold as a result.

The sector adapts. Buy-to-let will celebrate its thirtieth anniversary in 2026, it has weathered many economic storms, and the arrears performance of buy-to-let loans remain below that of the owner-occupied segment of the market. It’s a mature, seasoned product.

There are more positive signs emerging. Examining industry numbers, total buy-to-let lending has been up on last year monthly since Easter. Not significantly, but heading in the right direction all the same.

We recently updated the market on our quarterly performance and our pipeline at the end of June was £888.5m, compared to just under £600m at the end of September last year.

There is a long-term imbalance between supply and demand in the rental market and that will continue to underpin landlords’ investment decisions, particularly the more active portfolio landlords who account for an increasing proportion of rental stock provision in this country.

Every business craves stability and, where possible, certainty and landlords are no different. We have a new government, the economic volatility that marked the last decade has smoothed, the housing market has largely stabilised.

Landlords can look forward to a more attractive investment landscape. While challenges remain, the sector’s adaptability ensures it will continue to thrive.

Louisa Sedgwick is managing director of mortgages at Paragon Bank