House prices rise by 5.8% in October: Nationwide | Mortgage Strategy

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Annual house price growth has surged by 5.8 per cent in October – its highest level since January 2015, the latest Nationwide index shows.

The monthly rise was 0.8 per cent in October after taking account of seasonal effects, following a 0.9 per cent rise in September. This takes the average house price to £227,826.

Nationwide chief economist Robert Gardner says: “Behavioural shifts as a result of Covid-19 may provide support for housing market activity, while the stamp duty holiday will continue to provide a near term boost by bringing purchases forward.

“However, activity is likely to slow in the coming quarters, perhaps sharply, if the labour market weakens as most analysts expect, especially once the stamp duty holiday expires at the end of March.

“Behavioural shifts appear to be boosting housing market activity as people reassess their housing needs and preferences. Indeed, our poll in September suggested that 10% of those surveyed were in the process of moving as a result of the pandemic, with a further 18 per cent considering a move for the same reason.”

Good Move chartered surveyor and director Ross Counsell comments: “Whilst the latest statistics are positive, we believe we’ll start to see a decrease in house prices in the coming months as the furlough scheme comes to an end, and unemployment levels peak.

“This will undoubtedly affect buyer preferences and how much they’re willing to spend on a property which in turn will impact prices. We expect buyers will also be more cautious, and possibly less inclined to commit to buying a property.

North London estate agent and former RICS chairman Jeremy Leaf says: “On the ground, we’re seeing fewer viewings, offers and longer transition times as lenders and conveyancers struggle with the backlog.

“However, we haven’t yet experienced widespread price re-negotiation or withdrawals from previously agreed deals.

“That feverish buying and selling of late summer has been replaced by activity at a pace we might have otherwise expected at this time of year.

Glenhawk chief executive officer Guy Harrington adds: “Whilst the UK teeters on the brink of a nationwide lockdown, the housing market continues to defy conventional wisdom, as pent up demand is exacerbated by buyers rushing to beat the stamp duty holiday deadline.

“The warning lights are well and truly flashing however, with grim unemployment data, the stock market in free fall and mortgage providers tightening their lending criteria.

“If and when the market corrects is anyone’s guess, but the government must hope that the predictions for a deep recession don’t materialise, otherwise the inevitable collapse in sales volumes will quickly unwind this recovery.”


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