Tariffs, jobs, rates: What's sinking buyer mood most?

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Consumer homebuying sentiment slumped in June, with mounting fears over job cuts and tariff fallout darkening the housing outlook, according to Fannie Mae's latest data.

Fannie Mae's Home Purchase Sentiment Index fell to a reading of 69.8 in June, falling 5% after it recovered to a score of 73.5 a month earlier. The latest index score returned closer to March and April levels, when the HPSI hovered near the lowest marks since late 2023. 

More consumers saw buyer conditions improving last month. But overall sentiment still declined, driven largely by growing concerns about job stability.

The share of consumers worried about losing their jobs rose to 29%—up 13 percentage points from May and 18 points higher than a year ago. The job loss category saw the greatest degree of worsening sentiment, as heightened economic volatility surrounding tariff policy and reduced spending helped fuel the increase. 

Job-related anxiety wasn't the only factor dragging sentiment down. Fewer consumers also expect to see their income grow considerably in the next year, with the share dropping 3% compared to the previous month's survey. Compared to a year ago, though, the current 6% percentage forecasting significantly higher earnings is on par with where it was a year ago. 

Selling conditions also appear to be worsening, with the share or homeowners rating it a good time to list their homes on the market falling 2% from May and 12% a year earlier, as recent conditions, including price growth, skewed toward buyers' favor. Only 21% of potential sellers called it a good time for housing transactions in June. 

Softer expectations for home price growth are also weighing on seller sentiment. Only 23% of consumers expect prices to rise in the coming year, a slight dip from last month and down five percentage points from a year ago.

Weak home price growth could be attributed to a lackluster spring buying season, Cotality Chief Economist Selma Hepp noted in an economic research statement.

"While annual national home price growth continues to slow, a weak spring home-buying season has also resulted in relatively muted home price gains so far this year," she said.

Hopes that mortgage rate movements will spur housing activity won't necessarily come to fruition either with the 7% drop among consumers since May saying they would go down in the coming year. Overall, only a quarter of survey respondents see rates heading downward over the next 12 months.

Yet despite weaker enthusiasm in many housing market components in June, more consumers held out hope to say buying conditions would improve over the coming year, with the share expressing that opinion up 5% from May and 20% from June 2024. In spite of rapidly increasing buyer sentiment, the growth moves up from relatively bleak levels, with 71% of consumers still calling it a bad time to buy. 

How tariffs are shaping the economic outlook of consumers

The threat of higher prices facing consumers from new tariff policies have played no small role in the outlook for the housing market and the U.S. economy. While the Trump administration floated another delay of its reciprocal tariff policy over the weekend, current uncertainty has consumers nervous. 

In an April Redfin survey, consumers indicated that tariffs might lead them to alter their purchase plans, either by expediting, canceling or delaying them. A majority also expect the taxes to eat into their earnings, new Wallethub research also showed.   

In a survey on consumer sentiment toward banks, 71% said they anticipate tariffs to negatively impact their account balances. Three out of five bank customers also thought the money available in their accounts was failing to keep up with the rate of inflation, which many economists predict to rise if tariff effects kick in.  

While headwinds from tariffs "are bound to gust harder," according to Wallethub, more than half, or 55%, of respondents in its survey also blamed current interest rate levels for discouraging them from spending. 

With reciprocal tariff policies originally set for implementation on July 9, the president's economic advisors proposed an extension of the start date for several countries to August 1 over the weekend.

Unless they manage to negotiate a new agreement with the U.S., some trading partners will see imports taxed by as high as 40%, the Trump administration announced Monday. Policies already governing steel and aluminum imports, as well as incoming goods from China, currently remain in place. 


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