Industry reacts to rumoured interest rate cut - Mortgage Strategy

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With rumours of a rate cut at the end of the month heating up, Mortgage Strategy decided to approach a number of industry figures, microphone in hand, to find out the sentiment of such a move within the mortgage industry.

The last time the Bank of England voted to reduce the interest-rate was in early August 2016, when the rate was reduced from 0.5 per cent to 0.25 per cent. It has since been raised to 0.75, where it has sat for over a year.

Your Mortgage Decisions director Dominik Lipnicki confirms that rumours surrounding the interest rate reductions have been increasing for a few days now.

He says: “I do not feel there is any need for it, and I do not understand why the Bank of England would reduce rates now.

“There are some dark clouds hovering around Brexit and the economy currently, and I do not feel savers nor lenders will benefit from a reduction to the interest-rate.”

Crystal Clear Financial Services Mike Brown says that there does “seem to be an increase in the likelihood that we are to see a rate cut.”

He adds: “So, on the back of a January with an uplift in confidence and activity, this could help stimulate the market further, and see an increase in mortgage activity.”

Fox Davidson director Sarah Fox-Clinch outlines that weak economic data and low inflation figures indicate the potential for a reduction to the interest-rate.

She says: “We saw a marked increase in mortgage enquiries after the election result, and businesses and investors now have a clearer view of how UK politics and Brexit will pan out over the next few years.”

Fox-Clinch continues: “Therefore, decisions can be made, people do not have to keep putting things off and I believe we may not need a rate cut.”

Moneyfacts finance expert Darren Cook adds that the odds of the interest-rate being cut have increased since the latest batch of economic data.

He says that inflation has slowed to 1.3 per cent, and that the BoE have indicated UK growth is likely to remain sluggish over the next 12 months.

Cook says that with two-year swap rates falling from 0.81 per cent to 0.62 per cent since the start of January, this “gives a strong indication that the forward interest rate market is expecting an immanent interest rate decision to cut.”

As mortgage rates are already low, Cook says that it is, “unlikely an entire base cut will filter through to mortgage rates and rates will probably reduce at a speed and to a level which will be dictated by competition, especially if there is an urgency to retain mortgage business in the remortgage market.”

Nick Morrey says that a reduction to the interest-rate is likely, however, he adds that it is not a good idea.

Morrey adds: “There is an argument that the cut could be a pre-emptive strike to boost the economy before a possible Brexit induced recession, but I do not think it outweighs the case for hold back to see what is about to happen in the rest of Q1 this year.

“To back this up the markets have dropped the swap rates in expectation so the cost of borrowing is really very low already and I would be surprised if an actual drop would be that beneficial to the economy.”

However, housing expert Henry Pryor believes that it is very “unlikely that rates are going to be altered, savers are already paying a very high price and there is very little room left to cut.”

He adds that it would also be unclear how much of “any cut would actually be passed on to borrowers judging by previous changes to base rates.”

Pryor concludes: “I think it is also unlikely that we would see a rate cut during the hand over from one governor to the next as Andrew Bailey takes up his post on 16th March. I suspect that on this occasion the ‘unreliable boyfriend’ will leave things as they are.”


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