Today’s mortgage and refinance rates 

Average mortgage rates rose again last Friday. But, luckily, the increase was much more moderate than the one on the previous day. These rates remain exceptionally low by historical standards. But it would take something big to push them back down to anywhere near the all-time low.

And that’s looking unlikely this morning. Because mortgage rates today look likely to rise further. But, as always, markets might change with the passing hours.

Current mortgage and refinance rates 

COVID-19 mortgage updates: Mortgage lenders are changing rates and rules due to COVID-19. To see the latest on how coronavirus could impact your home loan, click here.

Should you lock a mortgage rate today?

Personally, I would lock my mortgage rate as soon as I could. True, nothing’s certain. And it’s never impossible that these rates could fall back sometimes soon.

But that currently seems much less likely than that they’ll carry on rising (see below). However, any upward trend will inevitably be punctuated with days and periods of falls.

So my personal rate lock recommendations remain:

• LOCK if closing in 7 days
• LOCK if closing in 15 days
• LOCK if closing in 30 days
• LOCK if closing in 45 days
• LOCK if closing in 60 days

However, I don’t claim perfect foresight. And your personal analysis could turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So you might choose to be guided by your instincts and your personal tolerance for risk.

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates 

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared with roughly the same time last Friday, were:

• The yield on 10-year Treasury notes climbed to 1.48% from 1.45%. (Bad for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates normally tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
• Major stock indexes were mixed soon after opening. (Neutral for mortgage rates.) When investors are buying shares they’re often selling bonds, which pushes prices of those down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower
• Oil prices increased to $75.55 from $73.35 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a large role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity. 
• Gold prices rose to $1,752 from $1,742 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) In general, it’s better for rates when gold rises, and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to push rates lower
• CNN Business Fear & Greed index — inched higher to 34 from 33 out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.

So use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, so far mortgage rates today look likely to rise. But be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

Find and lock a low rate (Sep 28th, 2021)

Important notes on today’s mortgage rates

Here are some things you need to know:

1. Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care
2. Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
3. Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the wider trend over time
4. When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
5. Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases. And a recent regulatory change has narrowed a gap that previously existed

So there’s a lot going on here. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what’s going to happen to mortgage rates in coming hours, days, weeks or months.

Are mortgage and refinance rates rising or falling?

Today and soon

For all the details of what’s going on, read last Saturday’s weekend edition of this daily report. But, to summarize that, the forces currently aligned to push mortgage rates higher are formidable. And the three main ones are:

1. The Federal Reserve has signaled that it’s likely to begin “tapering” on Nov. 3. That means it will scale back its purchases of mortgage-backed securities (MBSs — a type of bond that largely determines mortgage rates) and it’s those purchases that have been keeping mortgage rates artificially low for the last 18 months
2. Congress is still squabbling over the debt ceiling. And, if it doesn’t raise that by early- to mid-October, the US will default on its obligations. And borrowing costs on all sorts of debt (including mortgages) are likely to rise — among many other unpleasant consequences
3. Reported new cases of COVID-19 are continuing to fall. And investor concerns about the pandemic have also helped to keep mortgage rates low. As those worries lessen, those rates are likely to rise

Might something come along that changes this scenario? Of course. But it would have to be something huge (and very bad) to slow the impact of those upward forces — let alone reverse it. And let’s hope such an eventuality is unlikely.

Recently

Over much of 2020, the overall trend for mortgage rates was clearly downward. And a new, weekly all-time low was set on 16 occasions last year, according to Freddie Mac.

The most recent weekly record low occurred on Jan. 7, when it stood at 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. But then the trend reversed and rates rose moderately.

However, in April and after, those rises were mostly replaced by falls, though typically small ones. Freddie’s Sept. 23 report puts that weekly average at 2.88% (with 0.7 fees and points), up from the previous week’s 2.86%. But that doesn’t reflect the sharp rise seen on the day of publication.

Expert mortgage rate forecasts

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.

And here are their current rate forecasts for the remaining quarters of 2021 (Q3/21 and Q4/21) and the first two quarters of 2022 (Q1/22 and Q2/22).

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s were updated on Sept. 20 and the MBA’s on Sept. 22. But Freddie’s were last refreshed on July 15 because it now publishes these figures only quarterly. And its forecast is looking seriously stale.

However, given so many unknowables, the whole current crop of forecasts may be even more speculative than usual.

All these forecasts expect higher mortgage rates soon or soon-ish. But the differences between the forecasters are stark. And it may be that Fannie isn’t building in the Federal Reserve’s tapering of its support for mortgage rates while Freddie and the MBA are. Or perhaps Fannie believes tapering will have little impact.

Find your lowest rate today

Some lenders have been spooked by the pandemic. And they’re restricting their offerings to just the most vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinances.

But others remain brave. And you can still probably find the cash-out refinance, investment mortgage or jumbo loan you want. You just have to shop around more widely.

But, of course, you should be comparison shopping widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. As federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:

Shopping around for your mortgage has the potential to lead to real savings. It may not sound like much, but saving even a quarter of a point in interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.

Verify your new rate (Sep 28th, 2021)

Mortgage rate methodology