Chancellor Rachel Reeves has prepared the ground for tax increases in a pre-Budget speech this morning.
In a strong hint that her November 26 statement will include unpopular measures, she warned that “we will all have to contribute” to getting Britain’s economic future on the right track.
Speculation is mounting that the chancellor could be about to break an election manifesto pledge not to raise income tax, national insurance or VAT in her Budget this month.
She spoke of the need to tackle the UK’s £2.9trillion national debt, equivalent to 95% GDP.
She said: “We have the highest borrowing costs of any G7 country.
“Today, 1 in every £10 of taxpayers’ money is spent on debt interest.”
But she also affirmed commitment to sticking to fiscal rules was “ironclad”.
Reeves promised her upcoming Budget would have “fairness at its heart”.
She claimed there would be “no return to austerity”.
However she warned that: “If we are to build the future of Britain together, we will all have to contribute to that effort.”
Hargreaves Lansdown head of personal finance Sarah Coles says: “The fact this speech has been made at all is likely to demonstrate that the government wants to highlight its position: to meet its fiscal rules, it’s likely to have to make spending cuts and raise significantly more tax.
“It is going to raise concerns that it could mean the government is laying the ground to make a big change, which could even run contrary to manifesto pledges.
“This could mean one of the big three: income tax, National Insurance or VAT.
“Given that VAT runs the risk of being inflationary, it could put income tax front and centre.”
DeVere chief executive Nigel Green agrees that the speech could be paving the way for the chancellor to break one of Labour’s 2024 manifesto pledges.
He notes that Reeves has carefully avoided repeating the promise not to raise income tax, NI or VAT, which he says “isn’t hesitation, it’s intent”.
Green says: “Governments test language carefully before they act.”
“When ministers refuse to repeat categorical assurances, it’s deliberate.
“This is choreography. The message, we believe, is pretty clear: tax rises are coming. Get ready.”
Quilter tax and financial expert Rachael Griffin also sees the speech as setting the scene for Budget measures that could be painful for many.
She says: “The Chancellor is trying to convince both markets and the public that fiscal discipline can coexist with fairness, but for households already facing high borrowing costs and squeezed budgets, the idea of contributing more will still be a tough sell.
“This was a speech designed to project authority and honesty, not to win popularity.
“The real challenge for Reeves will come when she has to translate that rhetoric into decisions that feel credible to investors but also tolerable for working families.”