When lockdown was implemented in March, the property market ground to a near-total halt. With no physical valuations or property viewings taking place, it was always going to be difficult to get much business done.
The question on everybody’s lips was how quickly the market would recover once the restrictions began to be eased. Would a large volume of pent-up demand come flooding back? Or would ongoing uncertainty about people’s own financial prospects, and the economic situation, result in a flat-line effect? Would the recovery be V-shaped or L-shaped?
There has even been talk of a K-shaped recovery, whereby some people will do better than others. That’s the nature of any market at any time, of course; the trick is to do what you can to make sure you’re in the former group. As always, that means really understanding the market, innovating, and working to ensure that what you offer is in line with people’s changing needs.
Recovery in progress
There is evidence already that the market is recovering strongly. For our part, we’ve seen a huge increase in enquiries, up 189 per cent in June year on year. This has been aided in part by the government initiatives designed to boost economic activity, and more recently by the stamp duty holiday. It is equally clear, however, that not everyone is picking up where they left off pre-lockdown, as if nothing had happened.
Covid-19 has changed the way many of us go about our daily life. At Hope Capital, we have taken the decision to reopen our offices, with appropriate safety measures. All of our team are back in situ and enjoying the camaraderie of office life. Many firms have yet to follow suit and are reassessing whether they want to continue paying for expensive office accommodation. A good number of their employees, too, have taken the opportunity to think about whether cutting out the commute can help them achieve an improved work-life balance.
The pandemic has probably also hastened the decline of high-street retail.
All this has significant implications for the property market. Investors understand that people want more room at home to work and more access to outside space. This combines with the fact that individuals will be more open to living further from their nominal workplace if they are commuting less often. And, due to ongoing restrictions on foreign travel, more people are looking at the possibility of holiday lets.
Demand for office space and retail units is likely to suffer. Covid-19 has been particularly hard on the hospitality industry, with many bars and restaurants closed for good. Those that have survived will need to make adjustments. Recent government announcements on planning policy have been designed to encourage landlords to convert unwanted commercial units to residential use, and to expand on existing residential space.
Lenders need to adapt to this because the types of borrower coming to them, and the types of project they are looking to finance, will be different. The specialist lending sector is uniquely well placed to respond: bridging, in particular, has always been about being flexible and sensitive to individual circumstances and needs.
The changes we are seeing, already showing up in the types of enquiry and application we are receiving, suggest there could be a wave of modifications and refurbishments to both commercial and residential properties. This presents a significant opportunity for our sector, not just to do more business ourselves but also to play a major part in rebuilding the economy.
Jonathan Sealey, chief executive, Hope Capital