The mortgage market was calm at the Bank of England’s decision to hold base rate at 4% today, though some expect to see cuts very soon.
The Bank’s nine-strong Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 5-4 to maintain base rate at its current level. Four doves on the MPC, Sarah Breeden, Swati Dhingra, Dave Ramsden and Alan Taylor, voted to cut base rate to 3.75%.
Defending the decision, Bank governor Andrew Bailey said inflation was still too high at 3.8%.
He added: “In our decision to hold interest rates today, we have balanced the risk that above-target inflation becomes more persistent against the risk that demand in the economy is weakening, which might cause inflation to fall too low.
“If inflation stays on track, we expect to be able to gradually cut rates further.”
The mortgage and property markets were broadly unsurprised at the Bank’s decision.
Mortgage Advice Bureau deputy chief executive Ben Thompson said: “It’s no surprise that the Bank of England has acted with caution, choosing to hold the base rate at 4%.
“This decision breaks the streak of quarterly rate cuts, and with the Autumn Budget fast approaching and meaningful tax rises likely to be imminent, the Bank is clearly waiting for certainty on the inflationary outlook before making any further moves. Homebuyers and movers should therefore anticipate a stable rate environment for the time being.”
But some commentators said the Bank’s decision to hold base rate would have been a tricky one, and cuts were definitely looming.
Jeremy Leaf, north London estate agent and a former RICS residential chairman, said: “This time around the Bank had a more difficult decision to make than on previous occasions. Members of the interest-rate setting committee had to reconcile lower-than-expected inflation and wage growth with the likely impact of now-expected tax cuts in the Budget.
“The dangers of cutting rates further at this point could potentially reignite inflationary pressures which the Bank will be keen to avoid.”
Leaf added that housing market activity had been “in the doldrums” due to speculation about the chancellor taking tough action in her upcoming Budget on 26 November.
“However, the direction of travel for interest rates appears downwards which will give a boost to those sitting on the fence as well as others who are contemplating the end of fixed-rate mortgages at previously-agreed rock-bottom rates,” he said.
A base rate cut would have boosted lending during a traditionally quiet November, according to Jackson-Stops chairman Nick Leeming.
He said: “The decision to hold interest rates at four per cent reflects the Bank of England’s need to stem inflation with ongoing caution towards economic growth.
“However, this might have been an opportunity missed by the Bank of England’s rate setting committee, in which a 25bps drop would have given the lending market a much-needed boost during this November lull. If budget tax rises harm growth, we may see interest rates cuts being used in the future to support greater market movement.”
Fleet Mortgages chief commercial officer Steve Cox pointed out that lenders were cutting rates despite the Bank’s decision.
“While the MPC chose to hold base rate at 4% today, the trend in mortgage pricing tells a more optimistic story,” he said.
“Mortgage rates have been falling in recent weeks and we expect that to continue across November.”