Market Watch: Weve got this... | Mortgage Strategy

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I’m not gonna lie: it’s late (23.05) and I’m tired. A little bit stressed out and feeling that there is so much going on now that we just cannot control.

My emails don’t seem to be diminishing and an endless stream of lender notifications, rate rises and changes are hard to keep up with. I still have clients to go back to, issues on cases to deal with and, if I’m really, really honest, I would probably like to say a lot of things that I don’t think would be helpful or constructive.

However, as I wrote that last bit – which I didn’t expect to retain – I smiled. Looking back on the past 25 years in this industry, there has always been something challenging. Isn’t that the lot of the broker, and don’t we always come through it?

Whatever happens, whether it is the economy, technology, new regulation or who knows what, we battle on through, determined to help our clients. OK, so this global pandemic is truly a new one, but we’ve got this, haven’t we?

There is still an energy source in the industry that gives every firm and broker a purpose, a reason to go into battle for the hopes and aspirations of our clients. I know most of you feel it as I do. It’s a passion that drives me to do better, to work harder, to drive financial literacy, education and service. To try to make sure our industry is never questioned again around our make-up, ethics or advice.

It inspires us to work in partnership with colleagues, competitors, lenders and regulators to ensure we prosper, and the public get quality advice. And, if we are a little outspoken from time to time, so we should be.

Cause for optimism

In fact, there is much to be grateful for. As shown in the Bank of England Money and Credit release (August 2020), the market remains exceptionally busy and demand is still strong given the great lull of lockdown and the stamp duty holiday.

The change is that it is no longer first-time buyers driving the market but second and subsequent homemovers.

First-time buyers are struggling with changes from mortgage lenders, with few products available at 90 per cent LTV, and income multiples and criteria becoming more conservative.

People who have decent equity in their property plus a secure job, and who are looking to move away from cities to gain a bigger home and more space amid the new work-from-home culture, are the ones best able to take advantage of the stamp duty holiday.

There is also huge demand from people seeking to purchase a second or holiday home. The countryside is the new city; rural the new urban.

Landlords have also had something of a renaissance as they stand to gain from some of the lowest rates in the buy-to-let market we have seen and are no longer having to compete with FTBs.

It’s a classic tale of the haves having more while the have-nots have less.

Lenders continue to struggle with capacity and this, coupled with criteria and appetites changing almost by the day, means the role of professional brokers has never been more important.

Where property prices are concerned, the latest Nationwide House Price Index (September) showed extraordinary growth, with prices up 5 per cent year on year.

I think a note of caution should be applied here, however; and, while a 5 per cent annual rise in values sounds fantastic, the economic fallout of Covid-19 is starting to gather momentum and price growth will soon start to fade.

It may not have landed on the nation’s doormat yet, but there’s a whole world of economic pain in the post. The question is whether this starts to hit before the end of the stamp duty holiday, or we are left nursing a massive hangover on 1 April 2021.

Hero to Zero

Mike Jones of Lloyds Banking Group – intelligent, open, articulate and a bloomin’ nice guy. We wish you well in your retirement.

Imla and Ami working together to look at the service issues lenders are facing

NatWest’s new affordability rules to try to help mortgage prisoners

Concerns over capacity for conveyencers as backlogs build up

The plight of mortgage prisoners and those caught up in the cladding issues

The prospect of Lockdown 2

What we must do is make the best of the situation we are in. Although I am hearing tales of woe from brokers over strange decisions, extraordinary service delays and rates pulled before they are even put out, I am also seeing and hearing about some incredible levels of business being done across the country. We need to focus on what we can do, and help as many people as possible right now.

I really feel for the front-line BDMs at the moment. Most do an incredible job, and I’ve noticed a lot more late-night emails, a slight change in tone from some as the stress feels palpable, and as brokers we must remember to go easy on them, especially for decisions that are made through no fault of theirs.

In the markets, three-month Libor is up by the barest of margins to 0.07 per cent, while I still have to double-take, check, then check again when I look at swap rates. Since the last column:

  • 2-year money is down 0.06% at 0.06%
  • 3-year money is down 0.20% at 0.095%
  • 5-year money is down 0.08% at 0.17%
  • 10-year money is down 0.07% at 0.35%

See what I mean?

As far as products are concerned, whatever I write here will be out of date tomorrow! On the one hand it is worrying when I see lenders having to pull even 75 per cent LTV products with little warning, or in one case pull all their products, or decide not to accept any variable income or bonuses at all, guaranteed or otherwise, in affordability calculations.

I know lenders are increasing rates to try to dampen demand, but where does that end? I also question openly again why product transfer rates have to rise.

But there are also glimmers of hope, such as Metro Bank coming back at 90 per cent LTV; Accord and TSB at least trying to help at 90 per cent LTV with their flash sales; Santander improving its eligibility for broker PTs; and Halifax showing it understands some of the issues by automatically giving a three-month extension on completion dates.

I also like Vida Homeloans’ flex BTL product, a five-year fix at 3.84 per cent but with a three-year early repayment charge; Kent Reliance and Landbay reducing rates; and Precise increasing its maximum LTV and loan sizes for bridging cases.

For every case that struggles there are several that go through quickly and efficiently, with some lenders continuously delivering over and above.

This is all just another stage in our development as brokers. We’ve got this.

What Really Grinds My Gears?

I was fortunate to hear Alexander Hall’s Dom Scott talk the other day about diversity in our industry and the wider issues around the tragedy of George Floyd and the Black Lives Matter campaign. I won’t repeat it here as I will not do it justice. Needless to say, it was passionately, eloquently and intellectually delivered by a man I admire greatly.

It troubled me that we as an industry have not done as much as we could to react to this. I would urge every one of us to really think about what this means, and how we can affect change and show that we are positively ‘anti-racist’.

Diversity of thought is imperative in this ever-changing, fast-paced world and a cursory glance around boardrooms and senior management charts shows we must do more. Companies work better with a mix of genders and ethnic backgrounds.

We should lead from the front, showing that we positively want to attract young talent from different backgrounds – “fishing in another pond”, as Dom put it. We need to openly encourage equality, diversity and inclusion, to be more representative of society and our clients, and to help inspire future leaders of this industry, whatever their creed, skin colour or sexual orientation. It makes no difference; we are all human.


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