Today’s mortgage and refinance rates 

Average mortgage rates held steady yesterday. So they remain close to the all-time low.

Judging from early activity in markets, mortgage rates today may ease lower or hold steady. But that could change as the day progresses.

Current mortgage and refinance rates 

COVID-19 mortgage updates: Mortgage lenders are changing rates and rules due to COVID-19. To see the latest on how coronavirus could impact your home loan, click here.

Should you lock a mortgage rate today?

Don’t be lulled into a false sense of security by current mortgage rates, which have barely moved for a month. And which haven’t moved far over several months. Yes, that’s good, because they’re currently so low.

But they’re going to have to move some time. And, when they do, they’re more likely to move up rather than down.

So, for now, my personal rate lock recommendations remain:

• LOCK if closing in 7 days
• LOCK if closing in 15 days
• LOCK if closing in 30 days
• FLOAT if closing in 45 days
• FLOAT if closing in 60 days

However, I don’t claim perfect foresight. And your personal analysis could turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So you might choose to be guided by your instincts and your personal tolerance for risk.

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates 

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared with roughly the same time yesterday, were:

• The yield on 10-year Treasury notes edged down to 1.30% from 1.33%. (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates normally tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
• Major stock indexes were higher shortly after opening. (Bad for mortgage rates.) When investors are buying shares they’re often selling bonds, which pushes prices of those down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower
• Oil prices rose to $70.97 from $70.62 a barrel. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a large role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity. 
• Gold prices inched lower to $1,793 from $1,794 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) In general, it’s better for rates when gold rises, and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to push rates lower
• CNN Business Fear & Greed index — held steady at 40 out of 100. (Neutral for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.

So use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, so far mortgage rates today look likely to move a little lower or remain unchanged. But be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

Find and lock a low rate (Sep 14th, 2021)

Important notes on today’s mortgage rates

Here are some things you need to know:

1. Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care
2. Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
3. Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the wider trend over time
4. When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
5. Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases. And a recent regulatory change has narrowed a gap that previously existed

So there’s a lot going on here. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what’s going to happen to mortgage rates in coming hours, days, weeks or months.

Are mortgage and refinance rates rising or falling?

Today and soon

In Saturday’s weekend edition of this column, I took a look at the three things that are most likely to, at some point, force mortgage rates to move decisively. But they aren’t the only possible future pressures.

For example, economists are still arguing over whether current warm inflation rates are “transitory” (temporary, as the Fed thinks) or might continue, leading to a 1970s-style form of stagflation (economic stagnation and inflation at the same time). Sustained high inflation pretty much always brings higher interest rates, including mortgage rates. The Wall Street Journal reported this morning’s consumer price data from August thus: “Inflation Eased in August, Though Still High.”

Meanwhile, many on Wall Street are predicting a dip in major stock indexes over the next few months. That may mean little for mortgage rates, although investors have to put their money somewhere. And they may pick bonds, one type of which (the mortgage-backed security) largely determines mortgage rates. The good news is that the extra demand for bonds should push their prices higher. And higher prices inevitably mean lower yields and mortgage rates.

One of the risk factors I mentioned on Saturday (more economic damage were COVID-19 to take off again) would also lead to lower rates. But the other two would probably drive them higher. Those were the Fed changing its easy-money policies and Congressional irresponsibility over the debt ceiling.

Nobody knows for sure how each of those risk factors will play out. Nor whether another, completely unexpected one suddenly comes into play. Indeed, we may well see two or more at the same time, with one exerting upward pressure and the other downward. But, to my mind, higher mortgage rates are much more likely than lower ones. They just aren’t guaranteed.

Recently

Over much of 2020, the overall trend for mortgage rates was clearly downward. And a new, weekly all-time low was set on 16 occasions last year, according to Freddie Mac.

The most recent weekly record low occurred on Jan. 7, when it stood at 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. But then the trend reversed and rates rose.

However, in April and after, those rises were mostly replaced by falls, though typically small ones. And, more recently, rates have hardly budged. Freddie’s Sept. 9 report puts that weekly average at 2.88% (with 0.7 fees and points), up from the previous week’s 2.87%.

Expert mortgage rate forecasts

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.

And here are their current rate forecasts for the remaining quarters of 2021 (Q3/21 and Q4/21) and the first two quarters of 2022 (Q1/22 and Q2/22).

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s and the MBA’s were updated on Aug. 19. But Freddie’s were last refreshed on July 15 because it now publishes these figures only quarterly. And its forecast is already looking stale.

However, given so many unknowables, the whole current crop of forecasts might be even more speculative than usual.

All these forecasts expect higher mortgage rates soon. But the differences between the forecasters are stark. And it may be that Fannie isn’t building in the Federal Reserve’s tapering of its support for mortgage rates while Freddie and the MBA are.

Find your lowest rate today

Some lenders have been spooked by the pandemic. And they’re restricting their offerings to just the most vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinances.

But others remain brave. And you can still probably find the cash-out refinance, investment mortgage or jumbo loan you want. You just have to shop around more widely.

But, of course, you should be comparison shopping widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. As federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:

Shopping around for your mortgage has the potential to lead to real savings. It may not sound like much, but saving even a quarter of a point in interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.

Verify your new rate (Sep 14th, 2021)

Mortgage rate methodology