Construction output dips in Feb but bullish forecast Mortgage Finance Gazette

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Monthly construction output decreased 1.9% in volume terms in February 2024; this follows a 1.1% increase in January 2024, This is according to the latest construction output data from the Office of National Statistics (ONS).

The decrease in monthly output came from decreases in both new work (2.3% fall), and repair and maintenance (1.4% fall).

At the sector level, eight out of the nine sectors saw a fall in February 2024, with the main contributors to the monthly decrease seen in non-housing repair and maintenance, and private commercial new work, which decreased 2.5% and 4.0%, respectively; the only increase was private housing repair and maintenance, which grew 0.2%.

Commenting on the latest figures Beard Construction finance director Fraser Johns said:: “After January’s increase in construction output bucked the trend of the previous three consecutive monthly falls, it would be tempting to think that February’s figures are a damp squib.  However, it is evident from the ONS and our experience that poor weather had a lot to do with it, with heavy rainfall leading to delays in planned work and decreasing output in February.”

He added: “While there are ongoing pressures on the industry, including some remaining uncertainty around inflation, we shouldn’t let these latest figures shadow a brighter outlook and we shouldn’t let this small decline in output dampen the growing optimism we’re seeing on the ground.”

FRP, restructuring advisory partner Allan Kelly explained that February’s data outlined the construction industry’s uncertain state, having posted growth at the very start of the year.

“Overall output is heavily linked to the housebuilding sector, which has been subdued by high interest rates for more than 18 months now and continues to act as a drag on performance.”

He continued: “With the base rate forecast to fall in the coming months, inflation dropping – both of which should help put money back into people’s pockets – and the government having recently published its long-awaited guidance on second stairways in tall buildings, contractors will be hopeful of a resi-led recovery through the course of the summer.”