Inflation in September is expected to edge lower this week to keep the economy “on track” for a base rate cut.

Markets expect general prices to ease to 2.1% when Office for National Statistics data is released on Wednesday from 2.2% in August, just above the BoE’s 2% inflation target.

Deutsche Bank has a more aggressive stance, with inflation falling to 1.82%, with food prices and services inflation easing, although it forecasts private rents will rise 0.5% from the previous month.

Hargreaves Lansdown head of money and markets Susannah Streeter says: “With inflation staying steady in August, there are hopes that prices will have remained relatively calm in September.

“Prices at the pumps fell to a three-year low during the month, and although there still appears to be pent up demand for travel playing out, a fall in consumer confidence may have instilled a bit more caution into spending decisions.

“The uncertainty surrounding the upcoming [30 October] Budget may also be making some shoppers more wary.”

Markets expect the Bank’s rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee to cut the base rate by 0.25% to 4.75% at its 7 November meeting.

This would be the central bank’s second rate cut this year after it lowered rates in August, its first reduction in four years.

Streeter adds: “Governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey, has suggested that the Monetary Policy Committee could be a ‘bit more aggressive’ at cutting borrowing costs, which lit a fire under speculation that inflationary pressures are easing.

“But there is still some nervousness around the table about the risk that there could be an unwelcome resurgence in inflation, with chief economist Huw Pill still indicating that it would not be wise to cut rates too fast.”

Next month might prove a good time for the Monetary Policy Committee to move on rates, as prices are expected to rise towards the end of the year.

Deutsche Bank says: “The recent run of energy deflation will likely come to an end shortly. Indeed, pump prices are likely to reverse course in October, while dual fuel bills will see a hefty 10% rise.

“The upcoming Budget also raises risks to short-term inflation, with alcohol and tobacco duty increases potentially in the offing.”

Hargreaves Lansdown head of personal finance Sarah Coles points out: “It’s a push-me-pull-you month for inflation, which is likely to keep the Bank of England on track for a rate cut in November.

Coles says that the central bank is “less worried about price rises caused by external factors than it is about those feeding into wages and getting embedded”.

The Bank has long said it wants to see services and wage growth fall below 5% before it embarks on a sustained period of rate cuts, however, these measures have stubbornly hovered above this rate for most of the year.

Coles adds: “Assuming nothing alarming from the wage data, we’re likely to see it cut rates in November and possibly December.”