Today’s mortgage and refinance rates 

Average mortgage rates inched higher yesterday. That makes three consecutive business days on which they’ve moved by only the smallest measurable amount: up, down and up.

Judging from early movements in markets this morning, mortgage rates today might again barely move. But, after so much volatility in those markets, there’s little you can rely on

Find and lock a low rate (Jun 23rd, 2021)

Current mortgage and refinance rates 

Find and lock a low rate (Jun 23rd, 2021)

COVID-19 mortgage updates: Mortgage lenders are changing rates and rules due to COVID-19. To see the latest on how coronavirus could impact your home loan, click here.

Should you lock a mortgage rate today?

We were due a period of calm for mortgage rates after last week’s sharp rises. And I had hoped that there would be some worthwhile falls this week. But, unfortunately, those are yet to materialize. There’s still time, though few grounds for optimism.

And, in the coming weeks, it still looks much more likely that higher mortgage rates are on their way up than down. So my personal rate lock recommendations must remain:

• LOCK if closing in 7 days
• LOCK if closing in 15 days
• LOCK if closing in 30 days
• LOCK if closing in 45 days
• LOCK if closing in 60 days

However, I don’t claim perfect foresight. And your personal analysis could turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So you might choose to be guided by your instincts and your personal tolerance for risk.

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates 

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared with roughly the same time yesterday, were:

• The yield on 10-year Treasurys inched down to 1.49% from 1.50%. (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates normally tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields, though less so recently
• Major stock indexes were mostly higher soon after opening. (Bad for mortgage rates.) When investors are buying shares they’re often selling bonds, which pushes prices of those down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower
• Oil prices rose to $74.11 from $73.46 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a large role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity. 
• Gold prices edged up to $1,790 from $1,777 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) In general, it’s better for rates when gold rises, and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to push rates lower
• CNN Business Fear & Greed index — increased to 38 from 30 out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.

So use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, so far mortgage rates today look likely to barely move. But be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

Find and lock a low rate (Jun 23rd, 2021)

Important notes on today’s mortgage rates

Here are some things you need to know:

1. Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care
2. Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
3. Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the wider trend over time
4. When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
5. Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases. But some types of refinances are higher following a regulatory change

So there’s a lot going on here. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what’s going to happen to mortgage rates in coming hours, days, weeks, or months.

Are mortgage and refinance rates rising or falling?

Today and soon

Yesterday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testified on Capitol Hill. And he said all the things that you’d expect, namely that:

• The economy is rebounding at the fastest pace in decades
• He believes current inflation is transitory

The idea was to calm markets following the perception last week that the Fed was getting hawkish, meaning it would soon introduce tougher measures to counter inflation. And those measures might include gradually reducing (“tapering”) asset purchases, which currently include the Fed buying $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities each month. It’s those purchases that are currently keeping mortgage rates artificially low.

Mr. Powell’s problem is that everyone already knows what he thinks. But everyone also knows that there’s a vocal body of opinion, both inside and outside the Fed, that disagrees.

So yields on 10-year Treasury notes remained flat following his testimony. And mortgage rates did, too.

Right now, there’s little on the horizon that’s likely to cause a repeat of last week’s big rises. But neither is there much that’s likely to drive them down far. And, for now, they’re becalmed.

Of course, they’ll move decisively at some point. But most experts are expecting to see mortgage rates rise when they do.

Mortgage rates and inflation: Why are rates going up?

For more background, read Saturday’s weekend edition of this column, which has more space for in-depth analysis.

Recently

Over much of 2020, the overall trend for mortgage rates was clearly downward. And a new, weekly all-time low was set on 16 occasions last year, according to Freddie Mac.

The most recent weekly record low occurred on Jan. 7, when it stood at 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. But then the trend reversed and rates rose.

However, those rises were mostly replaced by falls in April, though those moderated during the second half of that month. Meanwhile, May saw falls very slightly outweighing rises. Freddie’s June 17 report puts that weekly average at 2.93% (with 07 fees and points), down from the previous week’s 2.96%. But that won’t have included most of the sharp rises we saw last week.

Expert mortgage rate forecasts

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.

And here are their current rates forecasts for the remaining quarters of 2021 (Q2/21, Q3/21, Q4/21) and the first quarter of 2022 (Q1/22).

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s were updated on June 16 and the MBA’s on June 18. Freddie’s forecast is dated April 14. But it now updates only quarterly. So its numbers are looking stale.

Forecaster	Q2/21	Q3/21	Q4/21	Q1/22
Fannie Mae	3.0%	3.0%	3.2%	3.2%
Freddie Mac	3.2%	3.3%	3.4%	3.5%
MBA	3.0%	3.2%	3.5%	3.7%

However, given so many unknowables, the current crop of forecasts might be even more speculative than usual.

Find your lowest rate today

Some lenders have been spooked by the pandemic. And they’re restricting their offerings to just the most vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinances.

But others remain brave. And you can still probably find the cash-out refinance, investment mortgage or jumbo loan you want. You just have to shop around more widely.

But, of course, you should be comparison shopping widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. As federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:

Shopping around for your mortgage has the potential to lead to real savings. It may not sound like much, but saving even a quarter of a point in interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.

Verify your new rate (Jun 23rd, 2021)

Mortgage rate methodology