Mortgage Strategy’s Top 10 Stories of the Week
This week, we delve into reports of Rachel Reeves planning to eliminate lower stamp duty thresholds for first-time buyers, alongside Goldman Sachs’ upgraded forecast projecting the Bank Rate to reach 2.75% by November 2025. Get all the details below:
Reeves to ditch lower stamp duty thresholds for FTBs: Report
Chancellor Rachel Reeves is poised to remove the lower stamp duty threshold for first-time buyers (FTBs), initially set at £425,000 during Liz Truss’s mini-Budget. In her upcoming Budget announcement on 30 October, Reeves will confirm that this measure, which has benefitted homebuyers since September 2022, will not be extended past its March deadline. This decision could cost FTBs up to £2,500 and is expected to generate £1.8 billion annually by 2029-30, impacting affordability, particularly in London and the South East.
Goldman Sachs upgrades Bank rate forecast to hit 2.75% by November 2025
Goldman Sachs has upgraded its forecast for the Bank of England’s base rate, predicting it will decrease to 2.75% by November 2025, down from an earlier estimate of 3% by September 2025. This adjustment follows a drop in UK inflation to 1.7%, well below the Bank’s 2% target. The investment bank anticipates that the Monetary Policy Committee will enact a series of rate cuts, beginning with a likely reduction from 5% to 4.75% at the upcoming meeting on 7 November.
Inflation cooling ‘faster than expected’: BoE’s Bailey
Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey announced that inflation is declining “faster than expected,” with the current rate at 1.7%, the lowest in three and a half years. However, he expressed uncertainty about whether inflation pressures have fully dissipated from the economy, citing potential structural changes. Bailey’s remarks, made at the IMF and World Bank meetings in Washington DC, are expected to bolster market speculation of a rate cut at the Bank’s 7 November meeting, with an 89% likelihood of a reduction to 4.75%.
Dynamo for Intermediaries and Next Intelligence mortgage clubs merge
Dynamo for Intermediaries and Next Intelligence mortgage clubs are merging to create a unified platform aimed at enhancing their services for mortgage intermediaries. The newly formed Next Intelligence will be managed by Cat Armstrong, with Louise Perry overseeing sales. This merger, which combines the strengths of both clubs—Dynamo’s 4,000 members and Next’s 3,500—aims to streamline offerings in mortgages, protection, and general insurance. The integration is expected to provide more resources and dedicated support for advisers navigating various lending options.
LSL hires Martin as marketing director
LSL Financial Services has appointed Laura Martin as its new marketing director. Martin joins from Sesame Bankhall Group, where she developed brand strategy and broker education initiatives. With over 20 years of experience in financial services, she has also worked at Together, Aldermore, and Platform. Emma Hollingworth, LSL’s group chief distribution officer, expressed enthusiasm for Martin’s appointment, highlighting her award-winning marketing background and the value she will bring in enhancing support for adviser firms across the group.
HSBC and Aldermore announce rate and product changes
HSBC is adjusting its mortgage product rates from tomorrow, implementing both increases and decreases across various categories, including two- and five-year fixed rates for existing customer switches, first-time buyers, home movers, remortgages, and buy-to-let (BTL). Notable changes include a decrease in two-year fixed remortgage rates at 85% and 90% LTV, while five-year fixed rates at 60%, 70%, and 75% LTV for home movers will increase. Aldermore has also introduced new BTL mortgage rates, offering competitive fixed options for landlords.
Stamp duty receipts up as all eyes on the chancellor
Stamp Duty receipts in the UK have risen to £8.6 billion for April to September 2024, an increase of £0.9 billion compared to the previous year. This comes as Chancellor Rachel Reeves is expected to announce whether temporary thresholds for Stamp Duty will be extended in the upcoming Budget. If not, homebuyers could see significant tax hikes after March 2025, with average bills potentially rising from £2,978 to £5,478. Experts warn that silence on these thresholds could lead to market distortion as buyers rush to complete transactions.
Rayner to double social housebuilding in £1bn Budget boost: Report
Angela Rayner plans to double social housing construction in England, backed by nearly £1 billion in the upcoming Budget. With around 11,000 council homes built annually, but over 23,000 lost through demolition or conversion, this initiative aims to address a significant housing deficit. The funding will support Labour’s goal of building 1.5 million homes in five years. Additionally, Rayner intends to reduce Right to Buy discounts, as last year’s sales outpaced replacements significantly. The measures are seen as crucial to alleviate rising housing benefit costs.
Chancellor to outline £50bn investment boost in Budget ‘reset’: Reports
Chancellor Rachel Reeves plans to announce a £50 billion investment boost in the upcoming Budget, which she describes as an economic “reset” for the UK. This includes proposed changes to debt rules, allowing for increased spending on infrastructure projects. Reeves aims to address a £22 billion shortfall left by the previous government while avoiding real-term cuts to public services. Experts warn that such extensive spending could lead to inflationary pressures, although mortgage rates are expected to decline, providing relief for borrowers.
IHT jumps 10% to £4.3bn amid Budget focus: HMRC
Inheritance tax (IHT) receipts rose by 10% to £4.3 billion for the six months ending September 2024, attributed to increased wealth transfers and rising property values, according to HMRC. This surge has prompted speculation regarding potential changes in next week’s Budget, which may tighten exemptions related to business and agricultural reliefs to generate additional revenue. The nil-rate threshold has been frozen since 2009, leading more estates to fall under IHT. Experts anticipate significant reforms as the government addresses these rising tax concerns.