Today’s mortgage and refinance rates 

Average mortgage rates inched a little lower last Friday. So they’re now equal to the most recent all-time low.

This morning, markets seem in a brighter mood than of late. The vaccine’s being rolled out in all 50 states. And there are glimmers of hope over Brexit (more below). So we might see a modest rise in mortgage rates in the coming hours.

Find and lock a low rate (Dec 14th, 2020)

Current mortgage and refinance rates 

Find and lock a low rate (Dec 14th, 2020)

COVID-19 mortgage updates: Mortgage lenders are changing rates and rules due to COVID-19. To see the latest on how coronavirus could impact your home loan, click here.

Should you lock a mortgage rate today?

Whether or not a small rise in mortgage rates occurs today, those rates will remain extraordinarily low. Few in the last half-century could have believed they would ever plumb such depths.

And that means, for many, it makes perfect sense to lock your rate now. You’re sure of an amazing deal. And you can close down the risk of future rises.

But I reckon that there may be yet lower rates ahead. And that falls will outweigh occasional rises for some time to come.

However, there’s a real danger of my being proved wrong. So only continue to float if you recognize the risk and are happy to embrace it.

See “Are mortgage and refinance rates rising or falling?” (below) for more details. Meanwhile, my personal rate lock recommendations are:

• LOCK if closing in 7 days
• LOCK if closing in 15 days
• FLOAT if closing in 30 days
• FLOAT if closing in 45 days
• FLOAT if closing in 60 days

But with so much uncertainty at the moment, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So be guided by your gut and your personal tolerance for risk.

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates 

Here’s the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared with about the same time last Friday morning, were:

• The yield on 10-year Treasurys climbed to 0.93% from 0.88%. (Bad for mortgage rates) More than any other market, mortgage rates normally tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields, though less so recently
• Major stock indexes were higher on opening. (Bad for mortgage rates.) When investors are buying shares they’re often selling bonds, which pushes prices of those down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite happens when indexes are lower
• Oil prices were effectively unchanged at $46.89, up from $46.79 a barrel. (Neutral for mortgage rates* because energy prices play a large role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity.) 
• Gold prices held steady at $1,840 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) In general, it’s better for rates when gold rises, and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to push rates lower
• CNN Business Fear & Greed index — Moved higher to 79 from 76 out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. The Fed is now a huge player and some days can overwhelm investor sentiment.

So use markets only as a rough guide. They have to be exceptionally strong (rates are likely to rise) or weak (they could fall) to rely on them. But, with that caveat, so far they’re looking worse for mortgage rates today.

Find and lock a low rate (Dec 14th, 2020)

Important notes on today’s mortgage rates

Here are some things you need to know:

1. The Fed’s ongoing interventions in the mortgage market (way over $1 trillion) should put continuing downward pressure on these rates. But it can’t work miracles all the time. So expect short-term rises as well as falls. And read “For once, the Fed DOES affect mortgage rates. Here’s why” if you want to understand this aspect of what’s happening
2. Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care
3. Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
4. Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the wider trend over time
5. When rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
6. Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases. But some types of refinances from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are currently appreciably higher following a regulatory change

So there’s a lot going on here. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what’s going to happen to mortgage rates in coming hours, days, weeks or months.

Are mortgage and refinance rates rising or falling?

Today

We may well see a rise in mortgage rates today. But, to my eyes, the things that are buoying markets this morning appear pretty flimsy. Unfortunately, my perceptions are unlikely to change much.

Yes, it’s great news that the COVID-19 vaccine is now starting to be administered. But it could be the second half of 2021 before it has a large-scale economic impact.

And yes, it’s looking possible (but only 50-50) that a Brexit deal will be done. That would see Britain withdraw from its membership of the European Union with a thin trading arrangement. But such a deal would still be bad for global trade. Still, the alternative no-deal arrangement would likely be catastrophic.

And, finally, yes, it’s still possible that Congress will pass bills that deliver some pandemic stimulus and avert Friday’s government shutdown. But few are expecting much from those.

Meanwhile, a real economic meltdown is happening as US states and countries around the world are being forced to apply ever-greater restrictions on people and businesses in response to the pandemic. Germany, the world’s fourth-biggest economy, is going into a hard lockdown today that will last throughout Christmas.

And it’s that last that makes me think mortgage rates — which typically are low when economic times are hard — are more likely to keep going gently downward for now.

Recently

Over the last few months, the overall trend for mortgage rates has clearly been downward. And a new, weekly all-time low has been set on 14 occasions so far this year, according to Freddie Mac. The most recent such record occurred on Dec. 3. And, on Dec. 10, Freddie reported, “Mortgage rates remain at record lows.”

Expert mortgage rate forecasts

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.

And here are their current rates forecasts for the last quarter of 2020 (Q4/20) and the first three of 2021 (Q1/21, Q2/21 and Q3/21).

But note that Fannie’s (released on Nov. 17) and the MBA’s (also Nov. 17) are updated monthly. However, Freddie’s are now published quarterly. And its latest was released on Oct. 14. So that’s beginning to look stale.

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages:

Forecaster	Q4/20	Q1/21	Q2/21	Q3/21
Fannie Mae	2.8%	2.8%	2.8%	2.8%
Freddie Mac	3.0%	3.0%	3.0%	3.0%
MBA	2.9%	3.0%	3.0%	3.2%

So predictions vary considerably. You pays yer money …

And another forecast

On Dec. 2, the National Association of Realtors threw its hat into the forecasting ring. It said:

The forecast anticipates mortgage rates will begin slowly going up toward the last half of 2021, reaching 3.4% by the end of the year.

Find your lowest rate today

Some lenders have been spooked by the pandemic. And they’re restricting their offerings to just the most vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinances.

But others remain brave. And you can still probably find the cash-out refinance, investment mortgage or jumbo loan you want. You just have to shop around more widely.

But, of course, you should be comparison shopping widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. As federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:

Shopping around for your mortgage has the potential to lead to real savings. It may not sound like much, but saving even a quarter of a point in interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.

Verify your new rate (Dec 14th, 2020)

Mortgage rate methodology