
Moody's Corp., a company that grades bonds and analyzes corporations' financial performance, said it expects to earn less this year than it had previously forecast, as tariff wars create tumult in markets, cutting into debt sales and acquisitions.
The ratings and analytics company said it now expects to earn between $13.25 and $14 a share this year, excluding the impact of items like restructuring. In mid-February, its forecast for adjusted earnings per share was between $14 and $14.50.
READ MORE:
The results underscore how trade wars that US President Donald Trump has escalated, including a series of higher tariffs he announced on April 2, are filtering through to markets and the economy. Moody's said it now expects global economic growth this year to be about a percentage point slower than its previous forecast.
"We do believe many businesses are being impacted by the uncertainty of impending trade tensions and this uncertainty in turn leads to customers delaying financing and investment," Rob Fauber, Moody's chief executive officer, said on a call with analysts Tuesday.
Shares of the company rose as much as 3.9% Tuesday, after the lowered guidance was better than some feared.
The bond grader now
"Last year, it was basically blue sky days the entire year," Fauber said. "We're in much more of a headline-driven environment at the moment."
Moody's now forecasts corporate acquisitions this year, which are often funded by debt and drive overall bond sales, to grow by 15%, compared with the 50% it had previously anticipated. The firm also cut its free cash flow outlook, forecasting as much as $2.5 billion, down from prior outlook for up to $2.6 billion.
For the first quarter, Moody's posted record revenue that topped estimates, with an 8% bump over the year-prior period. Earnings of $3.83 per share also beat the average of 24 analysts' estimates for $3.52.
Trump's tariffs have weighed on debt markets, but US high-grade bond sales have remained resilient even as equities sold off. Investment-grade debt issuance totaled around $530 billion in the first quarter, only about 1% below the same period last year, Bloomberg compiled-data show.
That relative steadiness benefited Moody's as its corporate finance revenue topped estimates and rose 6.6% year over year. Revenue from structured finance, helped by refinancing activity in collateralized loan obligations and commercial mortgage-backed securities, rose 21% from the first quarter of last year.
Private credit has also emerged as a "meaningful contributor" to growth, Fauber said. The evolution of capital markets, including private credit, and the automation of financial services businesses are among the factors that Moody's expects to drive demand for its products longer-term.
The analytics division said on Monday it will expand its private credit data offerings with a