Today’s mortgage and refinance rates 

Average mortgage rates edged higher again yesterday. But that may have been lenders catching up with rises that they failed to implement last Friday.

This morning’s inflation data were warmer than expected. And early activity in markets suggests mortgage rates today might edge lower. However, the Federal Reserve is due to release an important document at 2 p.m. (ET). And that might change things.

Current mortgage and refinance rates 

COVID-19 mortgage updates: Mortgage lenders are changing rates and rules due to COVID-19. To see the latest on how coronavirus could impact your home loan, click here.

Should you lock a mortgage rate today?

It still seems to me that the forces trying to push up mortgage rates are much stronger than the ones trying to drag them lower. And I suspect that situation will continue into the long term.

Of course, there will be periods when those rates fall — possibly including today. That’s how markets work. But I predict that the overall trend will continue upward into the foreseeable future.

So my personal rate lock recommendations remain:

• LOCK if closing in 7 days
• LOCK if closing in 15 days
• LOCK if closing in 30 days
• LOCK if closing in 45 days
• LOCK if closing in 60 days

However, I don’t claim perfect foresight. And your personal analysis could turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So you might choose to be guided by your instincts and your personal tolerance for risk.

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates 

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared with roughly the same time yesterday, were:

• The yield on 10-year Treasury notes fell to 1.55% from 1.60%. (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates normally tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
• Major stock indexes were mostly higher soon after opening. (Bad for mortgage rates.) When investors are buying shares they’re often selling bonds, which pushes prices of those down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower
• Oil prices fell to $79.87 from $80.81 a barrel. (Good for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a large role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity. 
• Gold prices rose to $1,781 from $1,759 an ounce. (Good for mortgage rates*.) In general, it is better for rates when gold rises, and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to push rates lower
• CNN Business Fear & Greed index — fell to 33 from 38 out of 100. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.

So use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today look likely to fall. But be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

Find and lock a low rate (Oct 13th, 2021)

Important notes on today’s mortgage rates

Here are some things you need to know:

1. Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care
2. Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
3. Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the wider trend over time
4. When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
5. Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases. And a recent regulatory change has narrowed a gap that previously existed

So there’s a lot going on here. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what’s going to happen to mortgage rates in coming hours, days, weeks or months.

Are mortgage and refinance rates rising or falling?

Today and soon

Yesterday, Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic told The Financial Times that he believed that the Fed should begin to wind down its asset purchases as soon as possible. “I think that the progress has been made,” he said. “And the sooner we get moving on that the better.”

Of course, Mr. Bostic is just one voice within the Fed. And others may disagree. But most investors seem convinced that the central bank will indeed begin to taper those purchases come Nov. 3.

And that’s crucial for mortgage rates. The Fed’s been buying mortgage-backed securities at a rate of $40 billion a month for the last 18 months. And those securities largely determine mortgage rates. So, when it begins to turn off that faucet, those rates are very likely to rise further.

We may learn more this afternoon at 2 p.m. (ET) when the Fed releases the minutes of the last meeting of its monetary policy body, the Federal Open Market Committee.

Is the economic recovery stalling?

You’ve probably seen recent reports about the headwinds the recovery is facing. And various banks, plus the International Monetary Fund (IMF), have been scaling back their forecasts for gross domestic product (GDP) growth both domestically and globally. And it’s true that stubbornly disappointing employment figures and global supply chain issues together may be slowing that growth.

Such forecasts are important to mortgage rates because those rates tend to be higher when the economy’s doing well and lower when it’s doing badly. So should we see those reports as a glimmer of hope for lower mortgage rates?

Sadly, I doubt it, at least for now. Even after they’ve been scaled back, those growth forecasts show a booming economy. Meanwhile, other forces are in play that are pushing rates higher. For example, rates of new COVID-19 infections in America have been falling for a month. And inflation is proving much more persistent than many expected.

So I’m reasonably confident in predicting higher mortgage rates as we move forward. But nothing’s impossible.