New buyer interest falls, house prices grind to a halt: Rics | Mortgage Strategy

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House buying demand fell again in October, as house price growth “ground to a halt”, according to the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors’ monthly Residential Market Survey.  

New buyer enquiries fell for the sixth month in a row, as the latest net balance figure weakened further to -55% last month, from -36% in September.   

The body adds its “survey feedback on buyer demand is negative across all parts of the UK, the second report running where this has been the case”.  

The national net balance for house price growth slumped to -2% in October, down from +30% previously, which ends a sequence of 28 monthly readings in positive territory.  

The association points to regional differences, with respondents in areas such as East Anglia and the South East posting net balances of -31% and -16%, respectively.   

By contrast, respondents in Northern Ireland and Scotland “continue to report that a reasonably firm upward trend in house prices remains in place, even if the pace of growth is softer than earlier in the year”.  

The report adds: “In keeping with the general pattern of a weakening market, the average time to complete a sale from its initial listing has edged upwards, now taking close to 18 weeks. At this point last year, the average completion time was closer to 16 weeks.”  

Net balance price growth expectations over the next 12 months sank to -42%, from a reading of -18% in September.   

The survey adds that “when viewed at the regional, or, country level, respondents across all parts of the UK are now, on balance, of the opinion that prices will see some degree of decline over the year ahead”.  

In the lettings market, tenant demand continued to rise “at a solid pace”, posting a net balance of +46% in October. At the same time, landlord instructions fell again, giving a net balance of -14%.   

The survey says, given this mismatch, rents are expected to be driven higher over the near term, returning a net balance of +52. Over 12 months, respondents see rents picking up by around 4% nationally.  

Rics chief economist Simon Rubinsohn says: “The latest feedback to the Rics survey provides further evidence of buyer caution in the face of the sharp rise in mortgage costs.  

“As a result, the volume of activity is likely to slip back over the coming months and realistic pricing is now much more important to complete a sale.   

“The settling down in financial markets could provide some relief although it may be premature to assume this will be reflected in a reduction in lending rates anytime soon.   

“However, the employment picture remains critical to the medium-term outlook and for the time being, that remains solid.  

“As far as the lettings market is concerned, the imbalance between demand and supply still appears unusually extended leading to rent expectations in the survey remaining at elevated levels and it is difficult to see this changing anytime soon in the current environment. “  


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