Given market dynamics, it's no surprise the megalender and rival UWM are benched this year, said Garth Graham, senior partner at Stratmor Group.

The reported $7 million price tag for a 30-second advertisement would equal the entire marketing budget of an independent mortgage bank that produces up to $3 billion a year in loan volume, according to the marketing veteran.

"There's only 30 companies that might have a marketing budget that would be big enough to handle a $7 million ad," Graham said of the industry.

The few IMBs who've advertised in past Super Bowls don't appear to be ditching sports marketing, but they aren't ramping up efforts either. Their absence from Sunday's game in Las Vegas and the 100 million-plus TV viewers it will likely deliver comes amid one of the most challenging times to buy a home in recent years. 

Sports marketing is a long-term play with consumers as opposed to a direct-response strategy, said Graham. Where direct response campaigns consist of emails, letters and phone calls drawn from organic or purchased leads, a sports fan isn't as likely to purchase a mortgage within a year of viewing an ad.

While as much as a quarter of the population may be interested in a mortgage during a busy time such as a refi boom, right now the ratio is probably closer to 1 in 10 consumers, Graham added.  IMBs direct marketing efforts around the cyclicality of the market, and sports won't be a priority until about the fourth quarter, he suggested.

United Wholesale Mortgage, which counts two Super Bowl ads in recent years, didn't share a specific reason for not airing a spot this Sunday. However, the lender said it is open to another Super Bowl commercial in the future.

"We would never consider pulling back," said Sarah DeCiantis, chief marketing officer at UWM, of the firm's sports marketing strategy. "Regardless of what is happening in the mortgage market, the feeling that ties a fan to a team that they love and the brands that are connected to those teams [is important]."

The wholesale leader maintains multiyear sponsorships with the NHL's Red Wings and the NBA's Pistons in Detroit. The company doesn't have a formal partnership with the Phoenix Suns, which chairman and CEO Mat Ishbia purchased last year, but DeCiantis said UWM would be open to such partnership.

Rocket Cos., which counts a PGA Tour event and Cleveland arena sponsorship among its sports marketing bona fides, offered a more holistic reason for stepping aside from this year's NFL title game. Chief Marketing Officer Jonathan Mildenhall told Ad Age last month the company hasn't "done the work to define the strategic idea for the brand and ultimately the creative idea for the brand."

Rocket's past ads have featured celebrities, while Guaranteed Rate in a 2021 Super Bowl advertisement also featured prominent athletes. On top of this year's $7 million fee, production costs would add to Super Bowl considerations, said Mary Scott, associate professor at Montclair State University and former president of global integrated communications at agency United Entertainment Group. 

"And then, where else are we going to place this ad?" said Scott. "How are we promoting it leading up to the Super Bowl? What are we doing after the Super Bowl? So it's an undertaking."

Neither Rocket nor Guaranteed Rate responded to requests for comment. No other mortgage lender has teased a national Super Bowl ad this year. 

Real estate won't be shut out of the big game entirely. IBuyer Opendoor says it will livestream an Atlanta-based home seller performing a virtual assessment of their property during an ad. It's unclear if the homeowner will receive an offer for their property on TV; a representative didn't respond to follow-up questions.

Large industry player CoStar meanwhile will air three Super Bowl commercials for its Homes.com real estate portal; while military-oriented lender USAA has aired numerous spots featuring former NFL star Rob Gronkowski. Sporting events are the last "destination TV" events, Scott said, and the Super Bowl remains a tremendous opportunity.

"You will see companies who might say, 'Well, that might be the majority of my marketing budget, but I believe that I'm gonna get such a great reach and impact from this one event, that it's worth it,'" she said. "It's not just the big guys anymore at all, which I think is great."