In a bit of a surprise, to me anyway, treasuries followed up good days yesterday with bullish gap openings this morning.

Yesterday's opening trades were the high yields for the day while the low yields were printed in the last 15 minutes. The 30-year finished the day with a bullish outside reversal and it also traded 0.2 bps into a bearish gap it had left on 1/28, falling 0.4 bps shy of filling it, but at least right now the remaining gap helps to define a bullish 9-day island reversal, and this morning the 10-year has also filled a bearish gap left from 1/16.

The 5-year yield has now dropped 15+ bps in barely 5 days and is back to a level not seen since 1/7, but the Fed Fund futures in the out months haven't followed and still don't price in another rate cut until June when the next Fed Chairman will be seated.

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That could change with tomorrow's jobs report or Friday's inflation report, but right now one might wonder if at least one of those reports might not already be known. These upcoming numbers could be really telling.

On a related note and in an incredible display of adhering to technical levels, after the Dollar Index fell from 99.49 to 99.49 in 8 trading days, it spent the next 7 days rallying and reached 97.99 last Thursday, while the standard Fibonacci 61.8% recovery target was 97.98. Yesterday it dropped back to 96.79, while the 50% retracement of the recovery was 96.77.

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If that weren't enough, the January high was barely above the 62% retracement of the break from November into December, while the December low just about nailed the 62% retracement of the rally from September into November. Technical analysis doesn't always work, but sometimes it just falls into the category of keep it simple, stupid.