Monday the 5-year yield opened a little higher, Tuesday a little lower, Wednesday a little higher, yesterday a little lower, so do I even need to say that the opening today was a little better?

Crude being down more than $7 didn't hurt and then just minutes ago a headline reading Iran's Foreign Minister stated, 'passage through the Strait of Hormuz is declared open for the remaining period of the ceasefire'.

With that oil dropped another $5 and treasury yields spiked down as much as 8+ bps, to new recovery lows for the 5-year. Treasuries tried to rally yesterday morning, helped along at 9:15 by Capacity Utilization and Industrial Production which were both softer than expected, but at 9:30 crude oil, which had been trading around unchanged on the day, began to rise and it took yields with it.

By early afternoon crude was $3.00 off its lows and treasury yields were about 4-6 bps off their lows. For several days now oil prices and yields have shown a pretty good direct correlation, at least during the day session for treasuries.

Nothing about the treasury patterns has changed much, the recoveries from 3/27 still appear to be corrective and they don't appear to be done, so I still like the target areas I first highlighted a week or so ago, 3.781/736 in the 5-year, 4.189/154 in the 10-year, and 4.829/788 in the 30-year.

In other news, the SPX made new highs yesterday, oh wait, that's not news. There have been 9 consecutive days of higher highs, something that hasn't happened since April of last year, while 10 consecutive higher highs hasn't happened since August of 2024 and futures are now up about 60 points.