The 2023 market was characterized by high interest rates, financial market uncertainty, surprisingly strong demand (considering the first two issues), and an extremely low supply of new listings – which maintained upward pressure on prices, even as housing affordability dropped. Sales numbers plunged due to loan rates and the inadequate supply of homes for sale, while for prospective sellers, the motivation to move was reduced by the mortgage lock-in effect. With interest rates falling, and economic conditions and consumer confidence rebounding, the big question is how much do rates need to fall for buyers and sellers to start participating in the market in normal numbers again? Right now, the direction is trending positive.
- In the last 2 months of 2023, the average weekly 30-year mortgage interest rate dropped from 7.79% to 6.61%. With the fall in inflation this past year, the Fed is widely expected to begin dropping its benchmark rate, probably in multiple steps, in 2024. The consensus forecast among analysts is for further declines in mortgage interest rates.
- After its end-of-year rally, the S&P Index was up 25% and the Nasdaq up 45% in 2023 (though it has ticked down in early 2024). This plays a major role in Bay Area household wealth.
Click the links below to access monthly market updates by Bay Area region.
- National Market Report
- Bay Area Home Price Maps
- San Francisco
- San Mateo County
- Santa Clara County
- Stanford Circle Cities
- Marin County
- Sonoma County
- Napa County
- Oakland-Berkeley Inner East Bay
- Tri-Valley, South Alameda County
- Diablo Valley
- Lamorinda
- North Contra Costa County
- Santa Cruz County
- Monterey County
- Greater Sacramento Market:
- Lake Tahoe Market:
- San Francisco, 2-4 Unit Buildings
- San Francisco, 5+ Unit Apartment Buildings
- Bay Area Market Cycles since 1990
- Macroeconomic Factors
