'Relative stability' as house prices edge higher: Halifax Mortgage Finance Gazette

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Average house prices edged higher again in March, suggesting ‘relative stability’ in the housing market, according to the Halifax monthly house price index.

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Prices rose 0.8% in March on a monthly basis, following a 1.2% rise in February, to £287,880, compared to £285,660 the month before. The typical house price is now around 2% below the peak of last August.

The average house price crept up across the regions too, with the strongest growth reported in Northern Ireland (4.9%), followed by the West Midlands (3.8%).

Annually though, the rate of growth has slowed to 1.6% versus 2.1% for the previous three months in a row. Despite this, the monthly rise points to a resilient market overall, the bank says.

Halifax Mortgages director Kim Kinnaird comments: “This is the weakest rate of annual growth in nearly three-and-a-half years (October 2019), having fallen markedly since June 2022’s peak of +12.5%.

“However, overall, these latest figures continue to suggest relative stability in the housing market at the start of 2023 and align with many other recent industry surveys and data.”

Kinnaird attributes an easing of mortgage rates as the ‘principal factor’ behind the improving picture, but predicts a continued slowdown through this year.

Alliance Fund chief executive Ian Crawford comments: “While the higher cost of borrowing will continue to have an influence, buyers are returning and while they are doing so at a more measured pace, this uplift in market activity is now starting to blossom into green shoots of positive house price growth.”

Thomas Legal director Chris Barry says: “Though demand levels dropped following the mini-Budget, the latest base rate rise is widely accepted as being one of the last for a while, which has increased confidence. Recently, many buyers have come back to the market, something evidenced by the recent increase in mortgage approvals. We can see demand continuing to increase as confidence and stability grows, which may see supply and demand meet in the middle sometime this year, creating the perfect housing market.”

Alfa Mortgages founder Adam Smith adds: “The outlook for house prices in 2023 will be heavily influenced by consumer confidence, which in turn will be shaped by a complex interplay of factors including inflation and uncertainty surrounding interest rates. A decline in consumer confidence could lead to a sharper decrease in the value of UK bricks and mortar, but the extent of this impact remains uncertain and is the million-dollar question on everyone’s mind. There are so many variables at play it’s hard to know where the UK property market is going next.”

Zoopla’s house price index this week showed growth had slowed to 4.1% in March, but said the market is faring ‘better than expected’ with sales on track for one million transactions this year.

There were also promising signs for homebuyer intent in a survey from Legal Bricks.