Property market subdued, near-term recovery uncertain: RICS

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The property market continues to be subdued, with little evidence of a significant recovery, according to the latest RICS survey.

Buyer demand and agreed sales both remained unchanged in July compared with June.

New buyer enquiries stood at a net balance of -28% in July, matching the figure recorded in the previous month, according to respondents.

The net balance is the proportion of survey respondents that report a rise versus those reporting a fall.

While the figure remains firmly in negative territory, it represents an improvement on the recent low of -41% recorded in March.

RICS chief economist Simon Rubinsohn said: “The housing market remains subdued. While this is not unusual during the summer months, the seasonally adjusted RICS data clearly shows that geopolitics, the domestic political environment and the cost of mortgage finance continue to weigh on sentiment.

“The outlook also remains subdued, with forward-looking indicators still pointing downwards. This is unlikely to encourage housebuilders to accelerate activity on existing sites or increase land purchases, as recent trading statements from developers have also indicated.”

Market appraisals, which compare activity with the same period a year earlier, recorded a balance of +19%.

The national house price balance was -30%, a slight improvement from -32% in June and the recent low of -35% seen in April.

Agreed sales recorded a net balance of -30%, unchanged from the previous month but an improvement on the -37% recorded in April.

The number of properties being brought to market stabilised in July, with new vendor instructions registering a net balance of -4%, compared with -23% in June.

RICS reported that regional house price differences remain substantial. London, the South East and South West continue to record weaker price balances than the national average, while respondents in Northern Ireland continue to report increases in prices.

In Scotland, price momentum also appears to be levelling off following a prolonged period of stronger growth.

Three-month expectations for house prices remain weak, with a net balance of -31%. Sentiment is somewhat more positive over a 12-month period, however, with the balance at +4%.

London remains notably lacking in confidence, with expectations for house prices over the next year falling to -23% in July from -10% previously.

Knight Frank head of residential research Tom Bill said: “The backdrop is less volatile than last summer but upwards pressure on mortgage rates and tax uncertainty are the familiar causes of hesitation among buyers, which means demand is improving but from a low base.

“While the prime minister has ruled out a land value tax, the aversion to spending cuts on the backbenches means the government will need to raise a selection of smaller taxes by default and that creates uncertainty. Meanwhile, borrowing costs don’t appear to be heading for a meaningful drop as the unpredictable Middle East conflict drags on.”


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