(Bloomberg) --As delinquencies on multifamily mortgages pile up, lenders who had bundled those borrowings into securitizations known as commercial real estate collateralized loan obligations are racing to stave off trouble.
To keep the share of bad loans from spiking too high — a development that would cut the issuers off from the fees they collect on the CRE CLOs — they've been furiously buying them back. The lenders acquired $520 million of delinquent credit in the first quarter, a 210% increase on the same period last year, according to estimates by
It's the latest sign of strain among the $79 billion of loans packaged into CRE CLOs, a market which grew in prominence in recent years as Wall Street financed syndicators who bought up apartment complexes with the intention of renovating them and boosting rents. When interest rates surged, many borrowers whose floating-rate loans were bundled into the securitizations were caught off guard and began falling behind on their payments.
To buy the defaulted loans, some lenders have been borrowing the money from banks and other third parties using what are known as warehouse lines, a type of revolving credit facility. It's surprising they haven't had more trouble accessing that debt given how quickly loans seemed to be deteriorating in quality heading into this year, said
"The reason these managers are engaged in buyouts is to limit delinquencies," he said. "The wild card here is, how long will financing costs remain low enough for them to do that?"
One reason they have is that risk premiums, or spreads, on commercial real estate loans have tightened materially since last November. As a result, even with a more hawkish tone on the path of rates, the all-in cost of financing is still lower than where it was late last year. Still, there's no guarantee it will remain that way.
"If the outlook for the Fed shifts materially to hikes or no rate cuts for a while, that might lead to a sharp increase in delinquencies, which can stifle issuers' ability to buy out loans," said Anuj Jain, a strategist at Barclays Plc, who expects buyouts to continue as distress increases in the sector.
Market Surge
CRE CLO issuance surged to $45 billion in 2021, a 137% increase from two years earlier, when buyers of apartment blocks sought to profit from the wave of workers moving to the Sun Belt from big cities. Three-year loans would give them time to complete upgrades and refinance, the thinking went.
Fast forward to today and the debt underpinning many of the bonds is coming due for repayment at a time when there's less appetite for real estate lending, insurance costs have skyrocketed and monetary policy remains tight. Hedges against borrowing cost increases are also expiring and cost significantly more to purchase now.
Those blows helped increase multifamily assets classed as distressed to almost $10 billion at the end of March, a 33% rise since the end of September, according to data compiled by MSCI Real Assets.
"There was so much capital flowing into that space to real estate operators and developers, and that led to a lot of reckless lending," said Vik Uppal, chief executive officer at commercial real estate lender Mavik Capital Management., who avoided the space.
The pain is now filtering through to the CRE CLO market. The distress rate for loans that were bundled into these bonds rose past 10% at the end of March, according to CRED iQ, compared with 1.7% in July last year.
The firm defines distress as any loan that's been moved to a special servicer or is 30 days or more delinquent. Some other data providers prefer to wait until payments are 60 days or more overdue before using that classification.
Short Sellers
The outlook for the sector has caused short sellers, who borrow stock and sell it with the intention of buying it back at a lower price, to target lenders who used CRE CLOs. That's because the issuers own the equity portion of the securities, so take the first losses when loans sour.
Short interest in Arbor Realty Trust stood above 37% on Monday, the highest level on record, according to data compiled by S&P Global Market Intelligence.
"The multifamily CRE CLO market was not prepared for rate volatility," said Fraser Perring, the founder of Viceroy Research, which is betting against Arbor. "The result is significant distress."
Arbor Realty declined to comment. Reached by phone on Tuesday, billionaire Leon Cooperman said that Arbor founder Ivan Kaufman has been "a good steward of my capital" and had correctly seen the need to position the company defensively more than a year ago.
CRE CLOs appealed to some investors because the issuers tend to have more skin in the game than issuers of commercial mortgage-backed securities. Critics argue the products contain loans of lower quality than you'd find in a CMBS, where loans are typically fixed rate so are, in theory at least, less exposed to interest rate hikes.
"These vehicles are a way for borrowers that need speculative financing that they often can't get from elsewhere," said Andrew Park, an analyst at nonprofit group Americans for Financial Reform. "CRE CLOs package the reject loans from CMBS."
