Today’s mortgage and refinance rates 

Average mortgage rates fell again yesterday. And they’re getting close to their lowest point over the last 30 days. But, of course, they’re higher than they’ve been for much of this year.

Mortgage rates today are essentially unpredictable. A big announcement from the Federal Reserve is expected at 2 p.m. (ET) this afternoon. And that could move relevant markets in either direction — or leave them roughly where they are. But, if that announcement weren’t coming, those rates would probably hold steady or inch lower.

Find your lowest rate. Start here (Nov 3rd, 2021)

Current mortgage and refinance rates 

Should you lock a mortgage rate today?

Falls in mortgage rates have been outweighing rises for more than a week now. But I still believe that those are probably one of those “inevitable periods of falls within a rising trend” that I often mention.

Of course, I might be wrong. But I expect to see rises resume all too soon.

So my personal rate lock recommendations remain:

• LOCK if closing in 7 days
• LOCK if closing in 15 days
• LOCK if closing in 30 days
• LOCK if closing in 45 days
• LOCK if closing in 60 days

>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates 

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared with roughly the same time yesterday, were:

• The yield on 10-year Treasury notes inched lower to 1.55% from 1.56%. (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates normally tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
• Major stock indexes were lower soon after opening. (Good for mortgage rates.) When investors are buying shares they’re often selling bonds, which pushes prices of those down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship
• Oil prices dropped to $81.49 from $83.39 a barrel. (Good for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a large role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity. 
• Gold prices fell to $1,769 from $1,794 an ounce. (Bad for mortgage rates*.) In general, it is better for rates when gold rises, and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to push rates lower
• CNN Business Fear & Greed index — inched higher to 79 from 78 out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.

So use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, even with that caveat, mortgage rates today are unpredictable. But be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

Find your lowest rate. Start here (Nov 3rd, 2021)

Important notes on today’s mortgage rates

Here are some things you need to know:

1. Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care
2. Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
3. Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the wider trend over time
4. When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
5. Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases. And a recent regulatory change has narrowed a gap that previously existed

So there’s a lot going on here. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what’s going to happen to mortgage rates in coming hours, days, weeks or months.

Are mortgage and refinance rates rising or falling?

It’s Nov. 3! I’ve been writing about that date for months. And now, finally, it’s here.

So what’s so special about today? Well, at 2 p.m. the Federal Reserve will issue a statement, complete with important forecasts. And, 30 minutes later, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will host a news conference.

That happens roughly every six weeks. But today the Fed is very likely to announce that it will be “tapering” (winding down) its “quantitative easing” (cheap money) programs.

And those programs include one that’s been keeping mortgage rates artificially low for the last 19 months. So those rates are likely to rise as the Fed’s support for low ones is withdrawn.

However, that’s not a certainty. The Fed’s been very clear for months that today’s announcement is coming. So investors have already positioned themselves (hence recent rate rises) in anticipation of it.

Indeed, it’s not absolutely certain that the announcement will come this afternoon. But the Fed will look foolish if it doesn’t because it’s allowed the belief that Nov. 3 is the key date to become so widespread that’s it’s hard to find anyone who doubts it.

So, how will markets react later today? I honestly don’t know. Perhaps they’ll barely care about what’s effectively stale news. Or they might push mortgage rates higher as a near-certainty becomes a certainty.

Actually, mortgage rates could continue to fall as one element of uncertainty (markets hate uncertainty) is removed from the equation.

Whatever happens today, don’t read too much into it. It may well be a spasm rather than an enduring change.

For more background, read last Saturday’s weekend edition of these daily reports.

Recently

Over much of 2020, the overall trend for mortgage rates was clearly downward. And a new, weekly all-time low was set on 16 occasions last year, according to Freddie Mac.

The most recent weekly record low occurred on Jan. 7, when it stood at 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages.

Since then, the picture has been mixed with extended periods of rises and falls. Unfortunately, since September, the rises have grown more pronounced.

Freddie’s Oct. 28 report puts that weekly average for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages at 3.14% (with 0.7 fees and points), up from the previous week’s 3.09%. But it’s looking likely those rates will fall back in this Thursday’s report.

Expert mortgage rate forecasts 

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.

And here are their current rate forecasts for the remaining, current quarter of 2021 (Q4/21) and the first three quarters of 2022 (Q1/22, Q2/22 and Q3/22).

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s and Freddie’s were published on Oct. 15 and the MBA’s on Oct. 18.

Forecaster	Q4/21	Q1/22	Q2/22	Q3/22
Fannie Mae	3.1%	3.2%	3.2%	3.3%
Freddie Mac	3.2%	3.4%	3.5%	3.6%
MBA	3.1%	3.3%	3.5%	3.7%

However, given so many unknowables, the whole current crop of forecasts may be even more speculative than usual.

All these forecasts expect at least modestly higher mortgage rates fairly soon.

Find your lowest rate today

Some lenders have been spooked by the pandemic. And they’re restricting their offerings to just the most vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinances.

But others remain brave. And you can still probably find the cash-out refinance, investment mortgage or jumbo loan you want. You just have to shop around more widely.

But, of course, you should be comparison shopping widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. As federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:

Shopping around for your mortgage has the potential to lead to real savings. It may not sound like much, but saving even a quarter of a point in interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.

Verify your new rate (Nov 3rd, 2021)

Mortgage rate methodology