Chancellor Rachel Reeves is widely expected to present the government’s fiscal statement sometime in November, where it is anticipated she will set out plans to raise as much as £20bn to plug a hole in the public finances.    

“With the Autumn Budget pushing later into November, the [Bank of England’s] Monetary Policy Committee may wish to wait to see the finer details of the fiscal policy outlook as well as how pay settlements are tracking into the final meeting of the year before pulling Bank rate lower,” says Deutsche Bank senior economist Sanjay Raja in a note to clients. 

The German bank still forecasts one more rate cut before the end of the year, but adds that when “is becoming increasingly uncertain”. 

Raja adds: “While we retained our call for Bank rate cut at the next Monetary Policy Report meeting — this remains finely balanced between November and December.”

The investment bank points out that the direction of inflation, which rose to 3.6% in the year to June, and is expected to hit 4% this month, will be a key factor that rate-setters may want to wait to study at the end of the year. 

The next MPC meeting is on 18 September, followed by gatherings on 6 November and 18 December. 

The Bank cut the base rate by a quarter point to 4.25% last month, its lowest level since March 2023. The reduction is the third rate cut this year and the fifth since last August. 

Also, in August, a series of reports surfaced, which said the Chancellor is considering raising a range of property taxes in the Budget.  

These would cover stamp duty and council tax reforms, a so-called mansion tax for higher value homes and the introduction of national insurance on rental income for landlords.