Election aids best buyers market in 5 years: Knight Frank Mortgage Strategy

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The general election and static mortgage rates mean that homebuyers face less competition in the market than they have in almost five years, according to Knight Frank.

Uncertainty caused by the national poll set for 4 July, combined with market expectations that the Bank of England will keep rates on hold at 5.25% on Thursday, have contributed to a buyer’s market, says the property agent.

Knight Frank head of UK residential research Tom Brill points out: “Overall, mortgage rates are unlikely to fall meaningfully any time soon and that, together with a degree of political uncertainty, is keeping demand in check.

“Ironically, it has rarely been a better time to be a buyer in recent years.”

There were 5.9 new prospective buyers for every sales instruction in the UK in May, according to Knight Frank data.

Buyers have only faced less competition once during the last five years – which came two months after the mini-Budget in December 2022, the firm adds.

The update from the property agent comes as the average two-year fixed-rate residential mortgage is 5.97% today, unchanged yesterday, data from Moneyfacts shows.

The average five-year fix is up a single basis point at 5.54% over the same period.

The housing market remained flat in June, with property asking prices (at £375,110), agreed sales and the number of buyers in the market remaining stable over the month according to the latest Rightmove house price index.

Tomorrow, Deutsche Bank forecasts UK inflation will fall to around 2.1% in the year to May, from its current 2.3% level, but still above the Bank of England’s 2% target.

And on Thursday the central bank is widely expected to hold the base rate at 5.25% for the seventh meeting in a row.

Hargreaves Lansdown head of money and markets Susannah Streeter says: “[BoE] Policymakers still have their eye on hot wage inflation, with earnings including bonuses still running at 6%, at the last count.”

Financial markets have pushed out their expectations of a first rate cut by the BoE as far as November.

Knight Frank’s Brill points out: “The autumn market is likely to begin with greater political certainty, but will it be further buoyed by a rate cut?

“Inflation data this Wednesday will provide a good steer as to whether current expectations for November look too gloomy or if a cut is more likely in August or September.

“Whatever month it happens in, buyers can certainly expect stiffer competition after the summer.”


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