On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, there were 114,200 transactions in November this year, which also represents a rise of 4% on October.
HMRC says the impact of recent increases in mortgage rates have not yet had an observed impact on statistics, likely because transactions data is based upon date of completion, which is later in the property purchase process.
Of the figures, MT Finance commercial director Gareth Lewis says: “Despite many wider economic challenges, consumers seemingly still want to buy property and move up the housing ladder.
“While this was a fairly simple process in a low interest rate environment, this has changed with consumers needing to get accustomed to higher mortgage rates, as well as the soaring cost of living.
“The effect of these and whether they will negatively impact transaction levels, as well as people’s desire to move, has yet to be seen in the official numbers. Only the new year will reveal whether that is the case.”
Quilter mortgage expert Charlotte Nixon says: “The cost-of-living crisis is still yet to take a real toll on the property market, as the number of monthly property transactions has not yet started to tail off as had been expected. The provisional seasonally adjusted estimate of UK residential transactions in November 2022 is 107,190, 13% higher than November 2021, though less than 1% higher than October 2022.
“While property transactions are yet to fall, they are certainly beginning to slow. A fall in house prices is widely anticipated for next year – Nationwide just yesterday shared its prediction that house prices could lower by 5% in 2023 – and slowing property transactions is likely the first sign that this could materialise as reduced demand goes hand in hand with reduced prices.”
Phoebus Software chief sales and marketing officer Richard Pike says: “The latest non-seasonally adjusted figures from HMRC may be a little surprising given that many reports recently have been of a declining market. It is encouraging to see that the pipeline of transactions continued to increase in the months leading up to the chaos caused by the now infamous mini-budget.
“Whether this trend will continue into the new year is questionable, especially as the winter months will be the most expensive, even with the energy price cap. Lenders will be looking to finish the year and head into 2023 on a high. So, the recent spate of rate reductions could continue, even as the base rate increases. Keeping on top of risk and vulnerability will continue to be a priority though and the technology lenders have in place will come to the fore.”
