The provisional seasonally adjusted January 2026 figure is less than 1% lower than in January 2025.

Non-seasonally adjusted residential transactions totalled 79,880 in January 2026, 3% lower compared to 12 months prior and down 24% from the figure in December 2025.

Commenting on the latest figures, Finova business development director Hamza Behzad explains: “A slower market is no cause for alarm, but it may point to a lack of momentum. Despite a strong choice of low-deposit mortgages, and a base rate at its lowest level since early 2023, affordability pressures and economic uncertainty are weighing on buyer confidence.”

“For many households, improved product choice alone isn’t enough to offset higher living costs and tightening household budgets. However, there is a ray of hope. Big market players are cutting rates by up to 0.2% and these rates could edge down further in March.”

Elsewhere, Saffron for Intermediaries head of business development Tony Hall says: “A modest dip in transactions at the start of the year is not entirely unexpected following stronger activity late last year. Buyers are still adjusting to rate expectations, and some caution remains.”

“However, lender competition is robust, especially specialist markets. We’re seeing ongoing demand from borrowers with more complex income streams, who continue to seek tailored solutions despite short-term fluctuations.”

Meanwhile, Quilter financial planner Ian Futcher comments: “Residential transactions ended the year on a steady footing and the market now looks increasingly sensitive to what happens with mortgage pricing over the coming months.”

“December’s seasonally adjusted total slipped by less than 1% on the month to 100,440 but remained 5% higher than a year ago, which is broadly consistent with the stable pattern we have seen since the summer. The non seasonally adjusted figures tell the same story, rising 1% on the month and 7% on the year, despite stretched affordability.”

“The direction of mortgage rates is now central to whether residential activity can break out of this tight range. Lenders have already been trimming fixed rate deals in anticipation of Bank of England cuts later this year, and the market is increasingly priced for a gradual easing cycle”

“If inflation continues to cool, there is a realistic prospect that average mortgage rates could drift lower through the spring and summer. That would gradually improve affordability and could release some of the pent up demand that has been sitting on the sidelines since early 2024.”

“For now, though, households remain cautious. Buyers are waiting for clearer evidence that further rate cuts are approaching and that any downward momentum in mortgage pricing will be sustained rather than tactical.”

“The resilience in December’s numbers suggests transactions are being driven by need rather than opportunism, but an improving rate outlook would provide exactly the confidence boost required to lift activity out of its holding pattern.”

OnTheMarket president Jason Tebb adds: “Although this transaction data reflects the uncertainty created by pre-Budget speculation, resulting in a particularly challenging period for the housing market, that is now behind us. On the ground there is evidence that the market has turned a corner.”

“Post-Budget clarity, combined with lower mortgage rates, should lead to an improvement in transaction numbers which are a better indicator of the overall health of the housing market than prices.”

“The increase in sellers bringing their homes to market this spring will keep prices in check to an extent, which will further assist first-time buyers and boost transactions. A further interest rate cut, perhaps even this month, will strengthen the market and encourage those planning to move, enabling them to plan ahead with more confidence.”