Sub-4% mortgages are vanishing due to an upheaval in homeloan pricing following the Middle East conflict, according to Moneyfacts.

Moneyfacts said a cut to Bank of England base rate looks “increasingly unlikely” and that the pool of lenders offering a sub-4% fixed rate deal “has taken a significant blow”.

All of the biggest banks, namely Barclays, HSBC, Lloyds Bank, NatWest and Santander, have increased rates since the start of March.

The average two- and five-year fixed rate deal are now more than 5%, according to Moneyfacts analysis last week.

Barclays, HSBC, NatWest, Nationwide and Santander no longer offer sub-4% fixed deals, which were available last week.

Across the market, the last time the lowest two- and five-year fixed rates were priced above 4% was over a year ago, in February 2025, based on first of month data.

The Bank of England base rate was cut to 3.75% in December 2025. Since then, the average standard variable rate (SVR) has fallen by 14bps, from 7.27% to 7.13%. Year-on-year, base rate has fallen by 75bps, but the average SVR has fallen by just 55bps.

Moneyfacts finance expert Rachel Springall said: “Borrowers looking for the lowest fixed rates will be disappointed to see the demise of sub-4% mortgages, but they are not sustainable with swap rates increasing.

“In an unprecedented turn of events, the unrest in the Middle East has led to rising swap rates, which has inflated mortgage rates and caused deals to be pulled from sale, some temporarily.

“These developments have scuppered expectations for the Monetary Policy Committee to vote for a cut to the Bank of England Base Rate, now much more likely for a hold this week. If such uncertainty is prolonged, and indeed if inflation spikes, we could even see an increase to base rate before the year is over.

“It really is too early to tell what might happen, but borrowers searching for a new deal should seek advice if they are concerned about rising costs.”