Some banks have focused entirely on the Coronavirus Business Interruption Loan Scheme or the Bounce Back Loan Scheme, which also gave them a reason not to lend outside the government support schemes.

A commercial bank’s broad-brush view — that every business that took out either a CBILS or BBLS loan was under stress — has also meant it was therefore reticent to consider any mortgage lending to those businesses.

The wider economic data of rising unemployment, the continued growth in online shopping and the adoption of home working all paint a gloomy picture. Then, of course, one can add in Brexit for good measure and we have a very uncertain economic outlook for 2021.

However, the residential and buy-to-let markets are both thriving despite the economic outlook and, while the stamp duty relief will be a factor, it is not the be-all and end-all.

Taxation may also experience some developments in 2021. Changes to capital gains tax have been voiced and, more generally, how should the government restore the public finances that have been used to support the country as a result of the pandemic?

Data on how different sectors are performing is considered by banks to inform lending appetite in each sector. However, this leads to the aforesaid broad-brush approach; for instance, the appetite or lack of it from commercial banks for the hospitality or retail sectors.

In 2021, I believe, there will be a shift to a ‘finer brush’ approach so that lenders can support individual businesses irrespective of their sector. This will entail more detailed consideration and due diligence on each business to enable an application to be supported; which in turn will mean brokers will really have to understand their business clients in terms of past performance, current position and future business plans.

Looking ahead, there are several reasons to be optimistic for 2021 in the commercial finance market:

Retail – Although the increase in online shopping will no doubt continue, the traditional retail experience will have been missed by many during lockdown. The opportunity to drive the public back to local shops must be a priority, especially for small market towns. This could manifest with business rate reliefs, to attract independent retailers and make the high street more attractive and different from the normal out-of-town shopping experience.

Manufacturing – As a country we will need to manufacture more following Brexit and rely less on imported goods. Supply chains throughout the world have been damaged during the pandemic and this, together with Brexit, with or without a deal, will strengthen the need for UK businesses to increase production capacity.

Hospitality – The increased likelihood of a Covid-19 vaccine early in 2021 will be music to the ears of the hospitality sector as people will be able to go about their lives in a much more pre-pandemic way. This means restaurants, pubs, hotels and guest houses will be a much more attractive proposition for a commercial lender.

Travel – The demand for travel by the UK population has been unabated despite the pandemic and there is no reason to suggest otherwise in 2021. The question is: will UK holidaymakers choose a UK destination or still hanker after far-flung destinations? Brexit may have an influence in that decision making, but the UK hotel industry may yet see a bumper year, making it an attractive sector to lend to.

Offices – While the working-from-home flexibility was welcomed over the summer, the lack of human interaction is starting to take its toll. A return to some office working is likely in 2021, which would mean demand for office space could return.

Kevin Thomson is commercial director at Connect for Intermediaries