Layoffs that occurred as record-low rates from the pandemic rebounded to normal levels have improved financials by reducing staffing by 35% from its heights in 2021, according to Fitch Ratings' review of the sector, which analyzes Bureau of Labor Statistics data.

That has put companies in a better financial position, and origination units could build on that if a gradual reduction rates telegraphed by the Fed materializes in 2025.

"The mortgage companies we cover are already profitable in a lower origination environment, and if originations increase in 2025, that will only improve," said Eric Orenstein, senior director at Fitch Ratings, in an interview.

Fitch has recently upgraded ratings for two publicly traded nonbanks, Rocket Mortgage and Pennymac's financial services company, in part due to the broader improvement in the nonbank outlook.

Rocket's moved one notch and crossed the line that divides high speculative grade from low-end investment-quality in going from BB plus to BBB minus ahead of third-quarter earnings due Nov. 12. The Pennymac company ascended to a higher speculative-grade rating of BB from BB minus. Fitch also revised its rating outlook for the publicly traded United Wholesale Mortgage upward to positive from stable.

Challenges Fitch foresees for these and other rated nonbanks include the immediate-term possibility of more negative servicing-rights marks in the industry and the need to maintain adequate, flexible funding while managing leverage ratios.

While most Fitch rated companies have extended unsecured debt maturities beyond next year, $1.5 billion in outstanding obligations mature in 2025, according to the report.

Unsecured debt tends to contribute to higher ratings because it's generally more flexible given it extends out further than alternatives and doesn't restrict balance-sheet assets. Debt in this category had fallen to 31.4% of the total as of mid-year from 34.3% at year-end 2023. 

In terms of funding, warehouse lines costs will be lower if short-term rates keep falling, but utilization rates and gross leverage will be higher based on Fannie Mae's forecast for a 28% surge in originations, which compares to an estimated 14% uptick in 2024.

Excluding Finance of America, a reverse mortgage specialist that's considered an outlier, Fitch found warehouse utilization increased rated nonbanks' leverage to 2.8x on average in the first half of this year, compared to 2.3x at the end of 2023 and a high of 3.8x in 2020.

There also will be other challenges if the scenario for financing costs pans out differently than Fitch envisions it, with the recent bond-yield volatility spike pointing to higher rates next year if incoming President Trump increases the U.S. deficit and monetary policy reacts as anticipated.

"The debt and the deficit are becoming increasingly issues that are impacting Treasury markets and mortgage rates," Bill Killmer, senior vice president of the legislative and political affairs at the Mortgage Bankers Association, noted in an interview.

Even then larger nonbanks would be in a relatively improved position when it comes to navigating the mortgage market next year, but the outlook for smaller players differs.

Prospects for more moderate-sized nonbanks differ by loan channel, according to the report which indicates that correspondent has become a scale business while opportunities are more broadly distributed for companies of varying size in retail.

In terms of policy risks for smaller nonbanks beyond interest rates, there is some concern about the potential for the government-sponsored enterprises to exit conservatorship in a way that puts those types of companies at a disadvantage. 

The first Trump administration took steps to privatize the GSEs and that effort is expected to resume. The path that takes has potential to affect small, independent mortgage bankers, said Scott Olson, executive director of the Community Home Lenders of America.

"There were a lot of fights over in Congress over how to do GSE reform, and CHLA and our predecessor organization testified in Congress and fought for a lot of things to protect smaller IMBs as far as having a broad base in terms of GSE mortgage origination. So we'll be tackling that issue and pushing for a model that preserves protection for smaller members and for consumers," he said in an interview.

Mark Calabria, the former director of the GSEs' regulator during Trump's first term, did voice interest in preserving the parity of guarantee fees that shape the influential mortgage investors' lender pricing.

It is unclear whether Calabria would reprise his role in Trump's second term, although he has said in the past he would serve again where needed. He had not responded to a post-election inquiry at the time of this writing.