The end of the stamp duty holiday will see house prices in England and Wales fall by 4.1 per cent by April, says Reallymoving.

The home moving firm forecasts the average house price, which it says was £338,951 in January this year, to come to £308,773 by the above date.

The three-month forecast is created by analysing conveyancing quotes given through the firm’s comparison tool, which is typically done 12 weeks before completion.

The firm says that deals that miss the stamp duty deadline will likely be either renegotiated or have house prices split across the sales chain, “further impacting prices, although this won’t become evident until Land Registry price paid data is published.”

It adds that it anticipates more activity from first-time buyers in the Spring and early Summer as prices drop and lenders bring out more high-LTV mortgage products.

On a regional basis, Reallymoving expects to see the biggest falls in prices in the South West, the South East and Yorkshire and the Humber by April – at 11.7 per cent within the first two regions and 10.9 per cent in the latter.

London, meanwhile, may well see prices drop by 5.4 per cent within the same time frame.

Reallymoving chief executive Rob Houghton says: “Now, for the first time, we can see the early impact of the end of the stamp duty holiday on prices, with buyers in January agreeing to pay less as they factor in the cost of a tax bill.

“Others who agreed deals earlier will still be hoping to make the deadline, and it’s likely we’ll see a sharp rise in fallthroughs in early April, as well as gazundering, which could impact final sale prices further if sellers are agreeable to spreading the cost – and many will be, rather than see their deal fall flat.

“Transparency and openness are key, and rather than hoping for the best, practical buyers and sellers will be opening up conversations now to try and ensure they can still proceed if they fail to complete by 31st March.”