Buy-to-let is never quiet and It’s been another eventful 12 months; a year marked by political change but one in which we have seen renewed momentum in the market. While 2025 will also bring twists, we enter the new year with growing positivity.
Buy-to-let mortgage lending picked up this year after a pretty dour 2023. Comparing the second and third quarters of the year to 2023, completions were up 18% and, across the industry, pipelines have been rebuilding. We recently reported a 48% increase in our own pipelines, alongside 4.4% growth in our net loan book.
Economic conditions have been more favourable this year – inflation has reduced and stabilised, reflected in lower mortgage pricing, which has become more attractive for landlords who may have been deterred from investing during the volatility of 2023.
There have, of course, been downsides. The Autumn Statement’s unexpected increase in the Stamp Duty surcharge was unwelcome, particularly for the nation’s tenants who may well see rents rise and choice of homes fall.
The long-term impact remains to be seen but looking at our own loan book again, the initial signs are positive, with landlords re-negotiating purchases or adjusting borrowing to account for the additional costs.
The year has seen further regulatory uncertainty, with the new Government quickly reintroducing the Renters’ Rights Bill and bringing the prospect of minimum energy standards for rented property back to the table.
On the former, we are working with Government to ensure a sensible implementation process won’t cause significant disruption for landlords, tenants and the vast industry that serves the private rented sector. On the latter, we await the Government’s proposals, but, as always, timing is everything and we will be cautioning against any rushed policy.
One thing is certain – making homes more energy efficient will cost money and many will need some sort of financial support. We have a refurb-to-let product that is well suited to financing energy efficiencies, and I imagine these will be more commonplace across the market next year.
Being in a position to offer advice on such products adds a string to the broker’s bow, as will building a good general understanding of the legislation. While aspects will often sit outside of brokers’ expertise, clients will value any information or signposting that will help them navigate the complexities of making their portfolios more sustainable.
Another aspect of the market that brokers should be gearing up for as we approach 2025 is a substantial volume of maturities business.
Industry data shows that over 190,000 buy-to-let mortgages, worth £26.2 billion, are set to mature next year – 136,898 five-year fixes taken out in 2020 and 54,017 two-year loans from 2023.
For some clients, particularly those with maturing two-year fixes, rates should be lower, while the majority of clients who opted for five-year products may face increases, although these landlords will have benefitted from the 33% increase in rents over the past five years.
The market’s diversity is greater now than in more stable years gone by so landlords are coming off products with different rates, fees and ICRs. As well as having the potential to cause a shift to shorter terms that offer greater flexibility, having more moving factors for borrowers to consider increases the value brokers can provide.
As we also look forward, we can see that demand for rental housing isn’t going anywhere soon. I’d like to think that the momentum we’ve seen build this year will continue into next so landlords can invest to meet it, creating opportunities for the sector.
Louisa Sedgwick is managing director for mortgages at Paragon Bank