Today’s mortgage and refinance rates 

Average mortgage rates moved moderately lower yesterday. Although the news was obviously welcome, it barely made a dent in the large rises we’ve been seeing recently. Of course, by historical standards, mortgage rates remain extraordinarily low.

Earlier, markets were suggesting mortgage rates today may hold steady or close to steady. But that could change as markets digest this morning’s consumer price index data, which were a little warmer than expected.

Find your lowest rate. Start here (Jan 12th, 2022)

Current mortgage and refinance rates 

Should you lock a mortgage rate today?

Did yesterday’s moderate fall in mortgage rates herald the end of the sharp rises we’ve seen so far in 2022? Well, it might well have. But I doubt it’s ushering in a sustained period of falls.

It’s more likely to mean we’ll see less sharp increases, punctuated with occasional periods of falls. And, for now, I’m expecting mortgage rates to resume their gentle drift higher.

So, for now, my personal rate lock recommendations remain:

• LOCK if closing in 7 days
• LOCK if closing in 15 days
• LOCK if closing in 30 days
• LOCK if closing in 45 days
• LOCK if closing in 60 days

>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates 

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared with roughly the same time yesterday, were:

• The yield on 10-year Treasury notes fell to 1.74% from 1.77%. (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates normally tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
• Major stock indexes were higher. (Bad for mortgage rates.) When investors are buying shares they’re often selling bonds, which pushes prices of those down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship
• Oil prices jumped to $82.16 from $79.02 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a large role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity 
• Gold prices rose to $1,824 from $1,803 an ounce. (Good for mortgage rates*.) In general, it is better for rates when gold rises, and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to push rates lower
• CNN Business Fear & Greed index — climbed to 66 from 52 out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.

So use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today are likely to remain unchanged or nearly unchanged. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

Find your lowest rate. Start here (Jan 12th, 2022)

Important notes on today’s mortgage rates

Here are some things you need to know:

1. Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care
2. Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
3. Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the wider trend over time
4. When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
5. Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases.

A lot is going on at the moment. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what’s going to happen to mortgage rates in coming hours, days, weeks or months.

Are mortgage and refinance rates rising or falling?

Today

Inflation is one of the Big 3 hot topics that have been pushing mortgage rates higher this year. So this morning’s consumer price index (CPI) and core CPI (CPI with volatile food and fuel prices stripped out) reports for December were bound to grab investors’ attention.

In the event, some figures were a little worse than expected. CPI itself was up 0.5% in December, while analysts had forecast a 0.4% increase. But mortgage rates had barely responded by the time we published this report.

Generally

You need to recognize how fragile trends in mortgage rates are right now. Currently, they’re mainly determined by the Big 3 drivers I mentioned earlier, namely:

1. Uncomfortably high inflation
2. Optimism about the medium- and long-term effects of the Omicron variant on the COVID-19 pandemic
3. The Federal Reserve’s winding down of its pandemic-era economic stimulus programs — including future rate hikes

Economic data — or scientific news about Omicron — that significantly changes markets’ take on any of those could send mortgage rates soaring or tumbling.

All I can do is try to predict what might happen to mortgage rates based on the current information about those Big 3 drivers. If that information changes, so will my advice.

Having said that, there seems little likelihood of inflation suddenly cooling nor the Fed doing a U-turn on its plans. But everything could change if Omicron optimism were to.

For a longer overview of what’s driving mortgage rates, including why markets are optimistic about Omicron, read the weekend edition of this daily rates report.

Recently

Over much of 2020, the overall trend for mortgage rates was clearly downward. And a new, weekly all-time low was set on 16 occasions last year, according to Freddie Mac.

The most recent weekly record low occurred on Jan. 7, when it stood at 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages.

Since then, the picture has been mixed with extended periods of rises and falls. Unfortunately, since September, the rises have grown more pronounced, though not consistently so.

Freddie’s Jan. 6 report puts that weekly average for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages at 3.22% (with 0.7 fees and points), up from the previous week’s 3.11%. But that doesn’t take account of some rises that week.

Expert mortgage rate forecasts

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.

And here are their current rate forecasts for the remaining, current quarter of 2021 (Q4/21) and the first three quarters of 2022 (Q1/22, Q2/22 and Q3/22).

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s were published on Dec. 20 and the MBA’s on Dec. 21.

Freddie’s were released on Oct. 15. It now updates its forecasts only quarterly. So we may not get another from it until January. And its figures are already looking stale.

Forecaster	Q4/21	Q1/22	Q2/22	Q3/22
Fannie Mae	3.1%	3.1%	3.2%	3.3%
Freddie Mac	3.2%	3.4%	3.5%	3.6%
MBA	3.1%	3.3%	3.5%	3.7%

However, given so many unknowables, the whole current crop of forecasts may be even more speculative than usual.

Find your lowest rate today

You should comparison shop widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. As federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:

“Shopping around for your mortgage has the potential to lead to real savings. It may not sound like much, but saving even a quarter of a point in interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.”

Verify your new rate (Jan 12th, 2022)

Mortgage rate methodology