Today’s mortgage and refinance rates 

Finally, average mortgage rates edged lower yesterday. It had been more than a week since the previous fall. And it made up only about one-tenth of the ground lost to the week’s rises. But gift horses.

Mortgage rates might hold steady or edge higher today. They’d looked borrower-friendly earlier but by approaching 10 a.m. appeared less so.

Find and lock a low rate (Feb 19th, 2021)

Current mortgage and refinance rates 

Find and lock a low rate (Feb 19th, 2021)

COVID-19 mortgage updates: Mortgage lenders are changing rates and rules due to COVID-19. To see the latest on how coronavirus could impact your home loan, click here.

Should you lock a mortgage rate today?

You’d have to be wildly optimistic to think that yesterday’s small fall represented a turning point for mortgage rates. Of course, it might turn out that it was. But, right now, there seem few grounds for believing so.

True, the financial press does offer a glimmer of speculative hope for future falls. Read on to discover what that is. But don’t get too excited.

In the meantime, I’m continuing to be even more cautious than usual. And I changed my personal rate lock recommendations this week to:

• LOCK if closing in 7 days
• LOCK if closing in 15 days
• LOCK if closing in 30 days
• LOCK if closing in 45 days
• LOCK if closing in 60 days

But, with so much uncertainty at the moment, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So be guided by your gut and your personal tolerance for risk.

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates 

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared with roughly the same time yesterday, were:

• The yield on 10-year Treasurys inched up to 1.32% from 1.31%. (Bad for mortgage rates) More than any other market, mortgage rates normally tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields, though less so recently
• Major stock indexes were higher on opening. (Bad for mortgage rates.) When investors are buying shares they’re often selling bonds, which pushes prices of those down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite happens when indexes are lower
• Oil prices fell to $60.16 from $61.45 a barrel. (Good for mortgage rates* because energy prices play a large role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity.) 
• Gold prices edged lower to $1,778 from $1,779 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) In general, it’s better for rates when gold rises, and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to push rates lower
• CNN Business Fear & Greed index — Nudged up to 59 from 58 out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. The Fed is now a huge player and some days can overwhelm investor sentiment.

So use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong (rates are likely to rise) or weak (they could fall) to rely on them. But, with that caveat, so far mortgage rates today look likely to hold steady or edge upward.

Find and lock a low rate (Feb 19th, 2021)

Important notes on today’s mortgage rates

Here are some things you need to know:

1. The Fed’s ongoing interventions in the mortgage market (way over $1 trillion) should put continuing downward pressure on these rates. But it can’t work miracles all the time. And read “For once, the Fed DOES affect mortgage rates. Here’s why” if you want to understand this aspect of what’s happening
2. Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care
3. Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
4. Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the wider trend over time
5. When rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
6. Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases. But some types of refinances are higher following a regulatory change

So there’s a lot going on here. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what’s going to happen to mortgage rates in coming hours, days, weeks or months.

Are mortgage and refinance rates rising or falling?

Today and soon

I’m expecting mortgage rates to end today unchanged or modestly higher. But, as always, that could change as the day progresses.

Yesterday, we gave a couple of examples of events that could cause mortgage rates to fall again. The pandemic relief package hitting the legislative rocks was one. And the emergence of a vaccine-resistant strain of SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19) was the other.

But, overnight, some in the financial media have been speculating about a third. The Financial Times, for instance, ran a headline overnight that read, “Do not rule out a market panic next month.” And CNBC reported, “Rising interest rates are rattling the stock market, and that could be the catalyst for a bigger sell-off, strategists say.”

The trouble is, all these are highly speculative. If serious enough, any one could send mortgage rates crashing to new lows. And any of them is possible. But how likely are they?

For more background on my wider thinking, read our latest weekend edition, which is published every Saturday soon after 10 a.m. (ET).

Recently

Over much of 2020, the overall trend for mortgage rates was clearly downward. And a new, weekly all-time low was set on 16 occasions last year, according to Freddie Mac.

The most recent weekly record low occurred on Jan. 7, when it stood at 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. But rates then rose. And Freddie’s Feb. 18 report puts that weekly average at 2.81%, up from the previous week’s 2.73%, and the highest it’s been since mid-November. But even that weekly average fails to take into account all the rises we saw that week.

Expert mortgage rate forecasts

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.

And here are their current rates forecasts for each quarter of 2021 (Q1/21, Q2/21, Q3/21 and Q4/21).

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Freddie’s and the MBA’s were published between Jan. 14 and 20, while Fannie’s were updated on Feb. 18:

Forecaster	Q1/21	Q2/21	Q3/21	Q4/21
Fannie Mae	2.8%	2.8%	2.9%	2.9%
Freddie Mac	2.9%	2.9%	3.0%	3.0%
MBA	2.9%	3.1%	3.3%	3.4%

But, given so many unknowables, the current crop of forecasts may be even more speculative than usual. And there’s certainly a widening spread as the year progresses.

Find your lowest rate today

Some lenders have been spooked by the pandemic. And they’re restricting their offerings to just the most vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinances.

But others remain brave. And you can still probably find the cash-out refinance, investment mortgage or jumbo loan you want. You just have to shop around more widely.

But, of course, you should be comparison shopping widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. As federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:

Shopping around for your mortgage has the potential to lead to real savings. It may not sound like much, but saving even a quarter of a point in interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.

Verify your new rate (Feb 19th, 2021)

Mortgage rate methodology