Market Watch: The Mayans had it right - Mortgage Strategy

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I remember writing a blog way back in January 2009, which has come into my thoughts over recent weeks. It was all about the Mayans, famed for their mystical mathematics and their incredible understanding of the universe. They calculated that there was an important astrological cycle, the Cosmic Day.

One Galactic Day of 25,625 years was divided into five cycles of 5,125 years.

Don’t worry, I haven’t gone bonkers. And this is not another crazy ‘end of the world’ thing; simply “a time of transition from one World Age into another”*.

The current phase is known as ‘The Time of No Time’. This is an evolutionary period where big changes take place to “thrust us into a new age of evolution as individuals and as mankind”.

This time is easy to identify: work is king; family time diminished; everyone in a hurry; materialism; mistrust; no escape from technology; focus on the self, no matter what the effect is on friends, family, colleagues or the planet.

The prophecy goes: “If we continue on this negative path of hate – an eye for an eye, destruction of nature, fear and egoism – we will enter straight into the time of destruction and chaos, and we will disappear as the dominant race of this planet.”

However, if we become conscious and realise that we all form part of a great organism, and that we should respect one another and be grateful to our planet, we will move directly into positive growth, our Golden Age.

Reset yourself

If there is anything that has pressed a reset button, much more so than a decade ago, it is this pandemic.

As we now prepare to face a whole new set of issues – how to return to the office, which could be more complicated than how to work away from the office – it is worth thinking about what type of person and company we want to be.

Rather than force people back to what we knew, we have to be more flexible. As an industry we have made great strides in the past decade, and what I love about you lot is your propensity to do this. To adapt, while always thinking of the needs of your clients as well as your business.

And I repeat an urge to you all that I wrote back then: do not give or take abuse, nor stand by if others are treated unfairly. If you think someone needs help, help them. Do not assume there has to be something in it for you first. Stand up and question ideas, especially from the boss, no matter how scary they seem. If they don’t even listen to your thoughts, leave – seriously, find someone who will at least give you their time. There is a multitude of good companies out there.

A good idea questioned is still a good idea and can become a great one. A bad idea not questioned could be disastrous.

Think about your relationships with staff, introducers, clients and lenders. These are all key and I will repeat this until I am blue in the face: we need lenders and lenders need us; we are one industry and our clients need us to be united. Embrace each other (well, not literally, at the moment).

Given the continuing situation and the uncertain future, there has been a further slight fall in the cost of funds in the market. Three-month Libor has dropped to 0.50 per cent, while swap rates have continued to drip down. Since the last column therefore:

2-year money is down 0.09% at 0.40%

3-year money is down 0.0.8% at 0.40%

5-year money is down 0.08% at 0.42%?

10-year money is down 0.06% at 0.48%

There has been loads of positivity creeping back into the market and it is important we all focus on this and ensure everyone else does too.

Lenders have been returning to the fold, adapting their AVM and desktop valuation policy, and increasing product availability once more, which is great. It’s also been excellent to see specialist lenders coming back.

Whilst we have all been praising lenders for their formidable efforts during this time, we are now looking at all the new policies and Covid-related criteria that are coming out.

I do feel there needs to be some consistency around how lenders handle, for example, furloughed workers, bonuses and the self-employed. Is it right to treat furloughed workers any differently from, say, those on maternity leave?

The point of furlough is to protect jobs, but how can an employer guarantee anyone will go back to work, and are they really more at risk than those still working? Why are we treating furloughed people differently?

Bonuses are an interesting issue too, and there are still many people whose bonuses will be unaffected by this, even enhanced in some circumstances, so why impose an overall policy on almost everyone?

Finally, an offer is meant to be a binding offer. I understand why some lenders are asking questions about changes in circumstances in this environment, but things can alter very quickly. I could sign something today that says no changes, or guarantee a worker – then tomorrow things change. As they could in the normal market.

It’s really tricky but, again, we need to work together on these policies. Broker, lender and client have a joint responsibility and we don’t want to get into blame games.

Also, as business becomes focused on remortgages and product transfers, lender behaviour in this partnership is still being very much watched. I’ll throw in another favourite phrase: ‘being a friend at the front door but a wolf at the back’, which means brokers will choose their friends more carefully in the future.

Lenders and brokers should work in harmony, in true partnership, and I am delighted to say most do. We need to keep it that way, especially now.

The last word goes to the Mayans: “Our planet, the sun and the galaxy are awaiting our decision. It is up to us what will happen in this time of change: whether we go through a time of suffering and destruction, or we find ourselves united in one positive consciousness moving closer to our next stage.”

Quotes taken from http://www.adishakti.org/mayan_end_times_prophecy_12-21-2012.htm and http://www.13moon.com/prophecy%20page.htm

Hero to Zero

HSBC – they have been terrific throughout this

Hopes that housing market will be in the first wave being allowed safely back to work

Help-to-Buy Payment holidays being allowed

The amount of people on a payment holiday

The amount of fraud and spam out there – tread carefully

This virus – be safe please

You Know What Really Grinds My Gears?

If this is really the beginning of the end and we are going to soon start at least some kind of movement again, there is a lot to consider. What we don’t want is too much unnecessary negativity. We need to all focus on the positive and how we can all get out of this and start to piece things together again in a new world, safely and efficiently.

We all know that doom-monger headlines sell, and we need to be careful not to get dragged into this. It is hard sometimes.

I totally agree with Rob Jupp’s latest comments about house-price indices. We really don’t need these at the moment, and there is no point in making headline-grabbing predictions that the world is about to end and talking ourselves into something worse than it needs to be.


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