Crest Nicholson Holdings has lowered its full-year profit and housebuilding forecasts after weaker-than-expected demand and pricing pressure weighed on trading over the summer.
The housebuilder now expects full-year completions of between 1,350 and 1,400 homes, down from its previous guidance of 1,400 to 1,500.
It also expects earnings before interest and tax to show a loss of around £10 million, compared with its previous forecast of a £5 million to £10 million profit.
Crest Nicholson said market conditions had been “more subdued than expected” during the seasonally quieter summer trading period, with affordability constraints and competitive pricing continuing to affect open-market sales.
Its net open-market sales rate over the past six weeks was 0.35 homes per week, compared with 0.48 in the first half of the year and 0.55 during the same period last year.
Pricing pressure has been particularly pronounced in bulk sales, the company said, although it continues to take a “disciplined and selective” approach to such transactions.
The weaker profit outlook reflects the lower expected number of completions and continued competitive pricing, particularly in bulk transactions. Crest Nicholson also expects further net realisable value provisions on a small number of sites.
Despite the weaker trading outlook, the company said it was making faster-than-expected progress in reducing debt.
Year-end net debt is now expected to be between £70 million and £90 million , around £30 million better than its previous guidance of £100 million to £120 million.
Build cost inflation remains in line with earlier expectations at around 3% to 4%, with most of the increase coming from materials.
Crest Nicholson is also continuing discussions with its lenders over changes to its financial covenants and its level of funding and liquidity.
The company said it now expects some delay to the current timetable for those discussions and will provide a further market update later.
Chief executive Martyn Clark said the summer trading environment had remained difficult, but argued that the company was making progress on areas within its control.
“Our cash optimisation programme is delivering with the expected year-end net debt position now materially better,” he said.
Clark added that Crest Nicholson was strengthening its operations through tighter cost control, improved procurement, more disciplined management of land and work in progress and a continued focus on build quality and customer service.
The company’s new house types remain on track to begin contributing from the end of its 2027 financial year.
Clark said the timing of a broader housing market recovery remained uncertain, but that the company was focused on protecting liquidity and improving performance while positioning itself for a recovery.
The number of new build housing developments is at its lowest level since January 2017, according to Rightmove research.