Inflation drops more than expected to 3.2% in November: ONS Mortgage Finance Gazette

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UK inflation has fallen by more than expected to 3.2% in the 12 months to November, the Office for National Statistics reveals.

November’s figures was 0.4% lower than the 3.6% reported in October.

Food and non-alcoholic beverages, and alcohol and tobacco made the largest downward contributions.

With the Bank of England base rate decision tomorrow, L&C Mortgages associate director David Hollingworth says today’s inflation underlines “the strong expectation of another rate cut tomorrow”.

Hollingworth comments: “Inflation remains higher than the Bank of England’s target, but this should be enough to signal a more sustainable path of easing.”

“Stubborn inflation has held back the pace of rate cuts but while a December rate cut looked far from likely in the summer, it now looks like a cert.”

“The MPC vote was finally balanced last month, but with unemployment figures on the rise and inflation easing, it would be a major shock if base rate does not fall again tomorrow.”

“Rising market expectation of another rate cut coming sooner than previously expected has already helped to drive down the cost of fixed rate mortgages. That will be welcome news for those thinking about moving home or coming to the end of a deal and lenders have shown little let up in their repricing activity as the festive season approaches.”

“I’d expect to see that competition to continue in the New Year, as lenders look to get off on the right foot.”

Meanwhile, Just Mortgages and Spicerhaart chief executive John Phillips says today’s announcement should “hopefully reinforce the growing consensus around a potential cut when the MPC meets tomorrow”.

Phillips notes: “Inflation is undoubtedly a key metric in the central bank’s decision-making and has long been a thorn in its side.”

“Today’s data hopefully strengthens the view that there is growing momentum behind the easing of inflation, which is positive news for the bank rate, swap rates and lender confidence – ultimately helping to influence the pricing and availability of mortgage products.”

Elsewhere, Bestinvest by Evelyn Partners personal finance analyst Alice Haine adds: “The headline rate of inflation plunged to 3.2% the 12 months to November, coming in lower than expected, raising the likelihood that the Bank of England will press ahead with a sixth interest rate cut tomorrow and deliver some much-needed respite for Budget-battered Britons ahead of Christmas.”

“While the latest reading aligns with the BoE’s belief that inflation has already peaked, the figure remains above the central bank’s target of 2%. Even so, the BoE is widely expected to move ahead with a 25 basis-point cut to the base rate after the economy showed signs of strain with a 0.1% contraction in October.”