Today’s mortgage and refinance rates 

Average mortgage rates fell yesterday. And it was the biggest single drop in weeks. Indeed, two or three more of those could see average rates for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages dip below 3% again.

Unfortunately, today might see mortgage rates rise — for the first time since late March. Might this be the start of a resumption of 2021’s upward rates trend? It’s possible. But it’s way too soon to be sure.

Find and lock a low rate (Apr 16th, 2021)

Current mortgage and refinance rates 

Find and lock a low rate (Apr 16th, 2021)

COVID-19 mortgage updates: Mortgage lenders are changing rates and rules due to COVID-19. To see the latest on how coronavirus could impact your home loan, click here.

Should you lock a mortgage rate today?

I’m expecting mortgage rates to start rising again at any time. Trouble is, I don’t know when “any time” will be.

While we’re waiting for that sad day, by all means, keep floating your rate. But be sure to make certain that you’re ready to lock quickly when you need to. And also monitor rates at least daily.

Still, for now, my personal rate lock recommendations remain:

• LOCK if closing in 7 days
• LOCK if closing in 15 days
• LOCK if closing in 30 days
• LOCK if closing in 45 days
• LOCK if closing in 60 days

But I don’t claim perfect foresight. And your personal analysis could turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So you might choose to be guided by your instincts and your personal tolerance for risk.

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates 

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared with roughly the same time yesterday, were:

• The yield on 10-year Treasurys rose to $1.59% from 1.58% (Bad for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates normally tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields, though less so recently
• Major stock indexes were mostly higher on opening. (Bad for mortgage rates.) When investors are buying shares they’re often selling bonds, which pushes prices of those down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite happens when indexes are lower
• Oil prices climbed to $63.12 from $62.71 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a large role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity.) 
• Gold prices rose to $1,776 from $1,755 an ounce. (Good for mortgage rates*.) In general, it’s better for rates when gold rises, and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to push rates lower
• CNN Business Fear & Greed index — Rose to 59 from 53 out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.

So use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, so far mortgage rates today look likely to rise. Just be aware that intraday swings (when rates change direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

Find and lock a low rate (Apr 16th, 2021)

Important notes on today’s mortgage rates

Here are some things you need to know:

1. Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care‘
2. Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
3. Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the wider trend over time
4. When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
5. Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases. But some types of refinances are higher following a regulatory change

So there’s a lot going on here. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what’s going to happen to mortgage rates in coming hours, days, weeks, or months.

Are mortgage and refinance rates rising or falling?

Today and soon

Yesterday, I gave some reasons that might explain why mortgage rates are currently falling. Did you find those wholly convincing? They were the best I could find after scouring the financial press.

But none of them gave a clue as to how long these falls might last. And, candidly, I don’t have one either.

However, I’m more certain that it’s highly likely rates will resume their upward trend sometime soon. Today? Next week? Next month? Who knows?

The reason I’m so confident is the current economic recovery, which looks set to turn into a boom within months. Very few — if any — serious booms in history have failed to bring higher rates with them. The New York Times yesterday summed up the current situation:

Soaring retail sales and a sharp drop in jobless claims are the latest reflection of a quickening recovery and suggest a year of remarkable growth.

— The New York Times, “Signs of Economic Hope Are Growing, Some With Superlatives,” April 15, 2021

Of course, it’s still possible that the recovery — and therefore the boom — could be derailed. If it is, a resurgence in the COVID-19 pandemic would be the most likely cause. And mortgage rates might tumble as a result. But most of the smart money is on the boom staying on track.

For more background on my wider thinking, read our latest weekend edition, which is published every Saturday soon after 10 a.m. (ET).

Recently

Over much of 2020, the overall trend for mortgage rates was clearly downward. And a new, weekly all-time low was set on 16 occasions last year, according to Freddie Mac.

The most recent weekly record low occurred on Jan. 7, when it stood at 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. But then the trend reversed and rates rose.

However, Freddie’s Apr. 15 report puts that weekly average at 3.04% (with 0.7 fees and points), down from the previous week’s 3.13%.

Expert mortgage rate forecasts

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.

And here are their current rates forecasts for the remaining quarters of 2021 (Q2/21, Q3/21, Q4/21) and the first quarter of 2022 (Q1/22).

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Freddie’s were updated on April 14, Fannie’s on April 12 and the MBA’s on March 22.

Forecaster	Q2/21	Q3/21	Q4/21	Q1/22
Fannie Mae	3.2%	3.3%	3.4%	3.5%
Freddie Mac	3.2%	3.3%	3.4%	3.5%
MBA	3.2%	3.4%	3.6%	3.7%

However, given so many unknowables, the current crop of forecasts might be even more speculative than usual.

Find your lowest rate today

Some lenders have been spooked by the pandemic. And they’re restricting their offerings to just the most vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinances.

But others remain brave. And you can still probably find the cash-out refinance, investment mortgage or jumbo loan you want. You just have to shop around more widely.

But, of course, you should be comparison shopping widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. As federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:

Shopping around for your mortgage has the potential to lead to real savings. It may not sound like much, but saving even a quarter of a point in interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.

Verify your new rate (Apr 16th, 2021)

Mortgage rate methodology