Housing market remains subdued in April, says Rics Mortgage Finance Gazette

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The housing market remained subdued in April with global uncertainty weighing on buyer demand and on sales, according to the latest index from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors.

New buyer enquiries remained firmly negative in April, recording a net balance of -34%, meaning a greater number of respondents reported a fall in new enquiries than an increase.

However, the new buyer metric was slightly improved from -40% recorded in March.

Agreed sales were also weak with a net balance of -36% reporting a decrease, broadly unchanged from -35% previously.

The headline house price indicator slipped to -34%, compared with -25% in March.

Sales expectations for the next three months registered -32%, while twelve-month sales expectations moved into negative territory at -6%.

Supply metrics were broadly flat, with new instructions recording a net balance of -3%.

The survey highlights a widening regional divide, with stronger downward pressure reported in London, the South East, East Anglia and the South West, while the North West and North of England continued to post marginally positive readings.

Prices were still rising in Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Looking ahead, near-term price expectations remained negative at -38%, although slightly less downbeat than March’s -45% reading.

The rental market continued to show demand outpacing supply.

Tenant demand rose, with a net balance of +14%, while landlord instructions remained negative at -17%.

A net balance of +25% of respondents expect rents to rise over the coming months.

Rics head of market research and analysis Tarrant Parsons says: “April’s results show a housing market still in the grip of macro headwinds stemming from the Middle East conflict.

“Recent warnings from the Bank of England that interest rate rises may be required to tackle renewed inflation, driven by elevated oil prices and disrupted supply chains, underline the challenging environment facing buyers.

“Until there is a clearer path for inflation and borrowing costs, activity and sentiment look set to remain subdued, particularly across southern England and London where affordability pressures are most acute.”

North London estate agent and former Rics residential chairman Jeremy Leaf says: “Market activity was previously supported not only by wage growth outpacing house prices but by mortgage offers obtained at more advantageous rates before the war in Iran began.

“However, now those elements are beginning to unravel as hostilities persist, concerns about near-term interest rates and inflation are proving more relevant.

“The result is buyers and sellers are reverting to cautious mode. The amount of stock available – particularly of flats – means buyers find themselves in a strong position.

“Fortunately, relatively few previously-agreed sales are falling through though we are seeing more re-negotiations and price reductions as the need-to-move sellers try to achieve their aims.”

On lettings, he adds: “The Renters’ Rights Act has prompted some landlords to sell though not as many as we had feared.

“The resultant shortage is supporting rents which would have probably otherwise dipped bearing in mind continuing tenant affordability concerns.

“Demand has improved a little in the past month or so but the rising cost of living partly due to the war in Iran is frequently mentioned in our offices as a reason not to increase rental offers too far.”