Well, here we are in May and before we know it the first half of the year will be over.

It’s at times like these — usually late at night, as at the time of writing — that one tends to take stock and review where we are in this extraordinary industry.

There really hasn’t been a clear year since the Brexit vote of 2016 that has been just a normal, chilled year. Brexit begat the pandemic and the pandemic begat a cost-of-living crisis, which begat the tragic events in Ukraine that seem, unfortunately, to be a long way from settled unless a monkey wrench falls on Putin’s head to knock some sense into him.

Bojo has pulled out the latest housing-related idea

Next year, perhaps, we will avoid the feast and the famine and have some semblance of ‘normalness’ — although, to be honest, I have forgotten what that looks like.

As always, however, we are an incredibly resilient bunch, showing that a bit of resolve and a determination to look after our customers can get us through pretty much everything.

These days, to get a sense of any potentially brewing issues, it pays to watch some of the smaller, specialist lenders that are reliant on the securitisation market, and Molo Finance has been the one to suffer this time.

Due to rising inflation and interest rate rises hitting funding costs, it has suddenly stopped all lending. This is a rare occurrence. It has cancelled all applications if borrowers do not have an offer, postponed completion dates, and is trying to change all the terms on those already offered if they still want to go ahead!

It is not just property values and interest rates that have increased but also rental prices

My thoughts are of course with the good people there who have had no control over this, but for those in control this is no way to do business, especially when we find out about it in the press. There should be some way of honouring what has been agreed, at the very least.

Right to Buy – again

Meanwhile, the pretender prime minister Bojo has pulled out the latest housing-related idea he believes will get loads of votes for him, borrowing from the spirit of Thatcher with a new Right to Buy revolution.

This time it is targeted at all those who rent through housing associations, around 2.5 million households, who would be able to take advantage of a discount that could be up to 70%, although the figures are not confirmed.

Although this could help some borrowers, there are serious questions over whether even a large discount would be enough for many to benefit. And, more importantly perhaps, what happens to the proceeds?

They need to be invested directly back into housing or there will be an even greater social housing shortage, where there is already just skin and bones.

We have not been able to put rates up to ‘normal levels’ since 2008. Perhaps without the pandemic we would have been at 2.5% now

It seems to be yet another short-sighted policy that is more designed for headlines than for tackling the deep-rooted issues of the housing market.

I repeat, ad nauseam: the housing market has been on the long road to ruin for decades, and this is a call for a long-term housing tsar who runs a cross-party committee that develops a long-term strategy, and is not changed via successive governments or by the whim of the latest 15-minute housing minister in the job by accident while trying to slide up the greasy pole.

On a positive note, the Building Safety Bill is making its way through the legislative process. According to a government spokesperson, this means: “Leaseholders will for the first time be legally protected from the cost of fixing historical safety defects, as building owners will be prevented from passing these bills onto them.”

A lot of further clarification is needed and builders must comply, but it seems a step in the right direction.

In the money markets, three-month Sonia is still floating in the aurora, up 0.18% at 1.23%, and swap rates continue to learn to fly, with the famous ‘inverted rate curve’ still evident.

Since the previous column:

2-year money is up 0.11% at 2.20%

3-year money is up 0.09% at 2.19%

5-year money is up 0.08% at 2.07%

10-year money is up 0.13% at 1.90%

As far as mortgage rates are concerned, the cost of fixed rates continued to rise over the past few weeks, with Moneyfacts reporting average prices rose across all fixes and loan-to-value bandings, with some lenders increasing rates by as much as 0.5% in one hit.

Where the current rate-increasing environment will end, we do not know, although even the chancellor has suggested that seeing the Bank base rate at 2.5% in the next 12 months is a reasonable expectation.

This seems a big jump but, because of all the issues we have had over the years — as alluded to in the introduction — we have not been able to put rates up to ‘normal levels’ since 2008. Perhaps without the pandemic we would have been at 2.5% now.

This is a call for a long-term housing tsar who runs a cross-party committee that develops a long-term strategy

There are, of course, loads of institutions and savers that want and respond better to higher rates, and rates should not stay artificially low forever. But, again, something could get in the way of this: a war in Europe and a cost-of-living crisis. If this does start to slow things down, competition among lenders will become more intense once more and rate rises may have to slow.

According to the latest Goodlord Rental Index, it is not just property values and interest rates that have increased but also rental prices. All regions saw growth in April, but interestingly the research found there was a corresponding rise in tenants’ wages as well.

Concrete and gold

There has been a smattering of concrete and gold among lender changes, with Santander altering its buy-to-let (BTL) and residential affordability rates to reflect the base rate changes. NatWest has raised its cashback to first-time buyers from £750 to £1,000 on selected rates, and Accord has reduced BTL interest cover calculations for landlords doing a like-for-like remortgage.

The Mortgage Works has increased the maximum LTV on new-build flats to 75% LTV, while the lovely Kent Reliance has a breakout new 90% LTV product for the right applicant with no maximum loan amount.

Following the green agenda, it was good to see Tandem Bank launch a second charge mortgage feature that will offer a ‘green discount’ on new second charge mortgages, operated under its Oplo brand. This offers a rate reduction of up to 0.5% for new customers with an energy performance certificate rating of A, B or C.

It seems to be yet another short-sighted policy that is more designed for headlines

Finally, it was exciting to hear of plans for the forthcoming Ukraine Aid on 30 June, featuring loads of great bands and industry talent, so well done to Kevin Duffy for putting it all together.

As some of you know, music is my thing. So, to celebrate this and to pay respects to the late, great Taylor Hawkins, there are 20 Foo Fighter song titles on these pages. The first to email me with all of them will get a gift of some description.

Until next time, I remain your servant and greatest supporter, everlong.