After a multi-year contraction, the mortgage lending workforce is seeing its first uptick in licensing since 2022. Recent data from the Conference of State Bank Supervisors suggests the steady exodus of loan officers has finally paused, though the industry remains cautious about expanding headcount.

A break in the licensing decline

As of the December 31 renewal deadline, 158,260 individuals requested to renew their licenses - a slight increase from the 158,161 requests seen at the start of 2025. State-specific license renewals followed a similar trend, rising marginally to 167,656 from 166,636 the previous year.

While these levels remain well below the 2022 peak of 192,073, the sudden consistency suggests the industry is bracing for higher volume. However, a license renewal doesn't necessarily mean a new hire. According to research from National Mortgage News:

• Small lenders: Over a third of companies originating fewer than 1,000 loans annually expect no change to staffing levels this year.
• Large firms: 23% of firms processing 5,000+ loans a year also expect to keep staffing flat.

The historical context

This year's uptick marks a significant shift in momentum. Following a massive 15% surge in 2022, renewals began to slide as interest rates climbed. While the decline slowed to less than 2% in 2024, the current figures represent the first year of growth in four years, signaling that the industry may have finally found its "new baseline."

Volume forecasts: The 2026 "kick up"

The relative stability of the workforce aligns with optimistic growth projections. Fannie Mae expects mortgage origination volume to reach $2.4 trillion this year, a significant jump from the $1.945 trillion logged in 2025.

Industry experts view 2026 as a pivotal "reset" year:

• Market incentives: Phil Crescenzo Jr. of Nation One Mortgage notes that affordability is being driven by homebuilders who are "getting very aggressive with price discounts and adding more incentives."
• Strategic growth: While nearly three-quarters of lenders expect volume to improve, the growth is expected to be a mix of purchase power ($1.49 trillion) and a resurgence in refinancing and home equity lending.
• Life-event re-engagement: Mark Fleming, chief economist at First American Data & Analytics, suggests that inventory will be supported by "gradual life-event" moves—buyers and sellers re-entering the market due to personal milestones.

As long as the balance of inventory remains steady, Fleming predicts house price growth will remain in check, allowing affordability to continue its incremental improvement throughout the year.